Planning Commission

AGENDA Meeting Location: Sloat Room—Atrium Building Phone: 541-682-5481 99 W. 10th Avenue www.eugene-or.gov/pc Eugene, OR 97401 The Eugene Planning Commission welcomes your interest in these agenda items. Feel free to come and go as you please at any of the meetings. This meeting location is wheelchair-accessible. For the hearing impaired, FM assistive-listening devices are available or an interpreter can be provided with 48 hour notice prior to the meeting. Spanish-language interpretation will also be provided with 48 hour notice. To arrange for these services, contact the Planning Division at 541-682-5675. MONDAY, JUNE 22, 2015 – REGULAR MEETING (11:30 a.m. to 12:45 p.m.) 11:30 a.m. I. PUBLIC COMMENT The Planning Commission reserves 10 minutes at the beginning of this meeting for public comment. The public may comment on any matter, except for items scheduled for public hearing or public hearing items for which the record has already closed. Generally, the time limit for public comment is three minutes; however, the Planning Commission reserves the option to reduce the time allowed each speaker based on the number of people requesting to speak. 11:40 a.m. II. ENVISION EUGENE IMPLEMENTATION: GROWTH MONITORING PROGRAM Lead City Staff: Heather O’Donnell, 541-682-5488 heather.m.odonnell@ci.eugene.or.us 12:30 p.m. III. ITEMS FROM COMMISSION AND STAFF A. Other Items from Staff B. Other Items from Commission C. Learning: How are we doing? Commissioners: Steven Baker; John Barofsky; Rick Duncan; John Jaworski (Vice-Chair); Jeffrey Mills; Kristen Taylor; William Randall (Chair)  AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY June 22, 2015 To: Eugene Planning Commission From: Heather O’Donnell, City of Eugene Planning Division Subject: Envision Eugene Implementation: Growth Monitoring Program ISSUE STATEMENT This work session is an opportunity to provide an update to the Planning Commission on the Growth Monitoring Program for Envision Eugene. No action is requested. BACKGROUND Two primary goals of the Envision Eugene project are to: 1) determine how Eugene will accommodate the next 20 years of growth in our community, as required by state law, and 2) create a future that is livable, sustainable, beautiful and prosperous. The City Manager’s March 2012 Envision Eugene recommendation includes several strategies and actions to implement the Envision Eugene vision. One of the key strategies supporting the “Flexible Implementation” pillar is to create an ongoing monitoring system to collect and track information related to assumptions we’ve made about the next 20 years of growth, as well as measure success in achieving the community’s goals. It is anticipated that the Envision Eugene Plan’s comprehensive plan and implementation and monitoring components will incorporate supporting monitoring policies. Consistent with this strategy, a draft Growth Monitoring Program has been developed that is intended to provide the information needed by the community and decision makers to periodically assess the validity of assumptions and evaluate the effectiveness of goals and policies adopted as part of Eugene’s new comprehensive plan. Specifically, the Growth Monitoring Program establishes a framework for the City to collect, report and analyze data related to growth trends (e.g. how dense is new housing, how much vacant land has been developed) and then assess whether some sort of action is needed if the trends or needs are different than we anticipated (e.g. if vacant land is being developed quicker than anticipated). The draft monitoring program framework is informed by input from key partner groups and agencies, research from other jurisdictions, and ongoing refinement of the data collection list and data collection systems. The Planning Commission reviewed the March 13, 2014 draft Growth Monitoring Program document at their June 9, 2014 meeting. Since then, monitoring efforts have been coordinated with transportation and sustainability staff and discussed with the Sustainability Commission and their Envision Eugene subcommittee and the Bicycle and Pedestrian Advisory Committee. The Envision Eugene Technical Resource Group (TRG) has assisted with drafting the Growth Monitoring Program document (Attachment A) and the list of quantitative data to be collected (Attachment C) as well as PC Agenda - Page 1 developing recommended language to formally institutionalize the monitoring program (Attachment D) such as through adopted comprehensive plan policies or ordinance. The City Attorney’s office is reviewing the TRG and staff recommendations to determine how best to incorporate the critical components of the program into the UGB adoption package. In addition, progress has continued on developing a database to collect development and growth trend data and discussions are occurring regarding how to measure some of the Envision Eugene strategies related to livability. NEXT STEPS It is anticipated that the TRG’s role will conclude with adoption of the Envision Eugene UGB and that the Growth Monitoring Program will continue with the assistance of a new technical advisory committee. In anticipation of this transition, the TRG is discussing the operational and educational materials and templates needed for a successful monitoring technical advisory committee. Staff will bring further updates to the Planning Commission as work progresses towards incorporating the monitoring program into the UGB adoption package. ATTACHMENTS A. Draft Growth Monitoring Program (June 16, 2015, no appendices) B. Key Questions and Data C. Quantitative Monitoring Data List D. TRG Recommended Implementing Language FOR MORE INFORMATION Contact Heather O’Donnell at 541‐682‐5488 or at heather.m.odonnell@ci.eugene.or.us PC Agenda - Page 2  Attachment A Growth Monitoring Program Purpose The Envision Eugene Pillar 7: Adaptable, Flexible and Collaborative Implementation, is the impetus for the Growth Monitoring Program. Pillar 7 acknowledges that while Eugene’s new comprehensive growth plan is based on well‐founded assumptions about what will happen in the future, not all of the assumptions will be correct and the plan needs to be flexible enough to address changing conditions and needs in the community. The purpose of the Monitoring Program is to provide the information needed by the community and decision makers to periodically assess the validity of growth planning assumptions and inform the effectiveness of strategies adopted as part of the new comprehensive plan and urban growth boundary (UGB), as well as relevant strategies in the Eugene Transportation System Plan, and the Climate and Energy Action Plan. Formal institutionalization of the program recognizes that these efforts are important enough to be completed on a regular basis. With this information, decision makers can determine whether the growth plan and/or related implementation activities need to be adjusted. The Monitoring Program both demonstrates and formalizes the City’s commitment to a growth plan that is flexible enough to address changing conditions and needs in the community. Key goals of the Growth Monitoring Program include:  To have data that is complete and relevant to future needs  To collect data efficiently  To provide accessible, transparent information to the community  To regularly assess current status of the land supply  To regularly assess the effectiveness of land use efficiency strategies  To identify growth planning trends, including housing affordability, and  To be a program that is continually evaluated and adjusted to respond to changing needs Outcomes Providing a comprehensive monitoring program has numerous beneficial outcomes. These include but are not limited to:  Increased reliability and on‐going tracking of the buildable lands supply status  Reduced city costs of future growth planning efforts  Increased public trust in the growth planning process  The community is in a better position to respond to changing conditions  Better collaboration with regional partners, creating a more complete picture about regional trends Monitoring Program Summary The Growth Monitoring Program includes several important steps as outlined below. Details about each step are provided on the following pages and appendices. Participants A wide range of participants is needed throughout the monitoring process to ensure the program’s success. Participants include government staff, review bodies (technical advisory committee, City Manager, Planning Commission), decision makers (City Council), and importantly, the general public. Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 1 PC Agenda - Page 3 Monitoring Process Steps The Growth Monitoring Program is intended to provide a recurring feedback loop that compares previous assumptions to actual occurrences to determine if any additional action is needed and then continues the monitoring cycle. Identify data Evaluate program for Collect data adjustments Take action if Report results needed Compare assumptions to actual results Several steps are required to make this a successful monitoring plan with applicable results: Preliminary Steps These early steps provide the foundation for the Monitoring Program. The results of these steps are not anticipated to change much over time, although some refinement to the data collection process is anticipated to occur as the monitoring results and program are evaluated and adjustments are implemented. Step 1 Identify Data to Collect: Several types and sets of data are identified for monitoring. Monitoring data are selected based on criteria such as their relevance and relative weight to key trends and land supply questions. Additional criteria includes availability, reliability, and if the data is related to multiple monitoring areas. Some “key data” are identified that have a larger impact or are more relevant to the buildable lands supply or Envision Eugene strategies/actions than other data being collected. Step 2 Collect the Data: The methodology for collecting each type and set of data is identified, including how to collect it, the source for collection, when to collect it, who collects it, how it is used and how it is stored. Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 2 PC Agenda - Page 4 Primary Steps These steps make up the bulk of the Monitoring Program and are repeated regularly over time. Step 3 Report Results: The monitoring results are provided at varying reporting periods and methods according to the data and level necessary. Annually, a report is generated on the key data. Every five years, a comprehensive report is generated on the key data, as well as other data necessary to explain the trends and answer key questions. Reports are also provided on an as needed basis. Some reports may include trends in the data over time and comparisons of the results to the original planning assumptions. Step 4 Analyze Results: The results of the reports are reviewed by a technical advisory committee (TAC) and verified for public release. Some monitoring results may warrant a more “in‐depth” level of review, meaning analysis of other data or studies that help explain the monitoring results is necessary before the report can be issued. The TAC will make a recommendation based on this analysis. Step 5 Take Action: Some monitoring results or the findings of an in‐depth review, may reveal a trend that warrants exploring whether the city should take some sort of action to respond to changing trends and needs. Possible actions range from wait and see how the trend plays out, to starting a new complete UGB planning review. Step 6 Program Evaluation: The Monitoring Program is periodically evaluated to ensure efficiency and accuracy and that the program goals are being achieved. The program may be lightly adjusted periodically with a more comprehensive review occurring every 3 years. Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 3 PC Agenda - Page 5 Monitoring Program Steps Participants In order to have a successful monitoring program, many people need to be involved during several points in the process. Broad participation is important to meet goals regarding transparency and access of the monitoring results and process. It can also help ensure the program is answering the important questions by bringing in experienced and professional topic experts that can help inform the review process and evaluate the results. Participants include:  LOCAL STAFF: City of Eugene Planning Division staff are the primary coordinators of the Monitoring Program, including gathering the data from various sources, reporting the monitoring results, providing technical expertise, staffing and participating on the TAC, and coordinating the monitoring review process. Other Eugene staff collecting relevant data includes staff working in building permits, transportation, and sustainability. Staffs from other jurisdictions also collect relevant data, such as Lane Council of Governments (LCOG), Lane County (Assessor and public health), utility providers and schools.  REVIEW BODIES: The review and analysis of monitoring are coordinated with a technical advisory committee (TAC), comprised of community members with diverse interests and areas of technical expertise and city staff. The primary role of the TAC is to assist staff in reviewing monitoring reports, exploring related technical questions to further a factual understanding of conditions, and to recommend to staff possible actions, or a range of actions, that may be needed to address changing trends. This work, as well as maintaining institutional memory regarding the monitoring efforts, necessitates regular meetings of the TAC. The TAC operating framework is provided in Appendix A. The Planning Commission and the Sustainability Commission are key review bodies in this process. Some instances may also warrant review by the City Manager or other boards or commissions, such as if significant changing trends are apparent or additional action is recommended.  DECISION MAKERS: It is anticipated that there will be some limited instances when the monitoring results and recommended actions will warrant review by City Council, such as if significant changes in policy direction or to the program are recommended.  THE PUBLIC: Stakeholders and other interested parties in the community at large are invited to participate in several steps of the monitoring process. All final reports and analysis results shall be made available to the public through the Permit and Information Center and the City’s web site. Meetings of the TAC, Planning Commission, and City Council are open to the public to hear and comment on discussion as well as any recommended actions. Public comment shall be gathered to inform periodic evaluation of the Monitoring Program. Step 1 Identify Data to Collect In general, the objective is to collect the data that will answer the right questions, such as whether an Envision Eugene strategy has been successful or if the actual outcomes match the planning assumptions relied upon as part of Envision Eugene. Identification of the pertinent questions for monitoring to answer, along with the previous experience on Envision Eugene, results in a list of quantitative and qualitative data to collect (see Appendix B Key Questions and Key Data, and Appendix C, Data Reporting Types by Pillar). There is also a desire to understand the reason a project or strategy doesn’t happen or isn’t working. Tracking this could be difficult and more work is needed to understand how this might be accomplished. Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 4 PC Agenda - Page 6 Quantitative Data Much of the data to collect is quantitative, meaning it is data that can be gathered in a numerical form which can be put into categories, or in rank order, or measured in units of measurement.. The quantitative data to collect falls into several broad categories:  General Trends (e.g. population growth, acres in vacant land supply)  Residential Development Trends (permit data; e.g. new housing units built)  General Residential Trends (e.g. household size/persons per household, housing affordability)  Employment Development Trends (permit data; e.g. new employment building capacity built)  General Employment Trends (e.g. number of jobs created by employment sector type)  Other Data (e.g. 20‐minute neighborhood assessment)  Regional Trends (e.g. regional residential construction data)  Efficiency Strategies & Investments (number of new controlled income and rent units) Appendix D Quantitative Data List includes the entire list of quantitative data sets to collect. Data identified with “*” are identified as key data to collect and report on more frequently because they have a larger impact or are more relevant to the buildable lands supply or Envision Eugene strategies/actions than other data being collected. The other data being collected is secondarily or conditionally relevant to help inform key data trends. The trends of secondary or conditional data are reported less frequently and in many cases only as needed. Qualitative Data Some of the Envision Eugene strategies and actions that need to be monitored and measured are more subjective in nature so the data being collected is more qualitative and typically descriptive data that is harder to analyze than quantitative data. For instance, the amount and type of development seen can be quantified, but it is important to also measure whether the development is achieving our qualitative goals and objectives, such as to create livable neighborhoods and enjoyable mixed use transit corridors and commercial areas. While measuring quality objectives may be subjective, the measurements do not necessarily need to be vague. Identifying the important qualitative elements in development helps to identify what elements of development need to be measured and how to measure it. Thomas Gilbert identified three quality requirements1 by which qualitative issues could be measured. The following summarizes those quality aspects and how they may be applied to developments or accomplishments to measure if they are meeting Envision Eugene’s qualitative strategies and actions. Additional work is required to determine exactly how quality aspects may be applied to development or accomplishments for measuring qualitative issues:  Accuracy. What is the degree to which an accomplishment matches a model without errors? (e.g. How well does the development or accomplishment match the ideal?)  Class. Is the accomplishment superior to most in some way beyond accuracy? (e.g. Is the development or accomplishment superior to other developments/accomplishments in some way?)  Novelty. Does the accomplishment demonstrate originality? Does it embody features or aspects that distinguish it favorably in particular dimensions? (e.g. Does the development/accomplishment demonstrate originality or does it embody features or aspects that distinguish it favorably?) 1 Human Competence: Engineering Worthy Performance, Thomas Gilbert, http://books.google.com and, Dave Ferguson http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/archives/4189. Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 5 PC Agenda - Page 7 Given the subjective nature of the qualitative assessment analysis, it is recognized that there is a likelihood that much of this work will need to be reviewed by a board, commissions or advisory group other than the TAC. See Appendix E for the qualitative assessment framework (Has not been started; for now refer to Data Reporting Types by Pillar for which strategies/actions require qualitative assessment). Other Items to Monitor Other information or issues related to development trends and growth planning may arise that are not specifically mentioned above. Examples include new studies on demographic or development trends such as from the University of Oregon or the Urban Land Institute, or changes in federal, state or local policies, laws and regulations related to development. Monitoring this information takes place in the course of normal practice and operation of the Planning Division in conjunction with governmental, institutional and community partners, as needed and as resources permit; the methods and scope are not specifically prescribed by the Monitoring Program. Step 2 Collect the Data Each type and set of data identified for collection requires a specific collection methodology (see Appendix F, data collection methods). The methodology includes at a high level which Envision Eugene pillar the data helps monitor down to the details of who collects the data and when. Collection methodology Example entries for each data point: Envision Eugene Pillar‐ The overarching Envision Housing Affordability Eugene pillar of the strategy or action that the data is monitoring Data‐ the specific data type or set that is being structure type collected and monitored Key question‐ the key question that the data is How many new single‐family homes were built? helping to answer How many new multi‐family homes were built? What is the housing mix of new development? Description/definitions‐ the description and any The mix of new housing units permitted is derived from applicable definitions of the data being collected the number of new housing units permitted and the type of structure each unit is in. Housing structure types are grouped into four main categories which can be further subdivided and result in a "housing mix" (generally expressed as the percentage of single‐family vs multi‐ family housing). These housing types are mutually exclusive: a)”Single‐family detached” means… b)etc. Definition source‐ the origin of the data definition Oregon Administrative Rule 660‐008‐0005 and the city Basic methodology‐ a general description of the Collect the type of new buildings being constructed, overall collection method including additions and standalone buildings. Collection Source‐ the institution or process that Building permit process originally collects the data Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 6 PC Agenda - Page 8 When is it collected‐ the time of year or point in Building permit issuance the process when the data is originally collected Who collects it‐ the city staff responsible for either Building plans examiner or Land use analyst entering the original data into the original collection source, or for obtaining the data from a non‐City source (e.g. PSU, U.S. Census) How is it collected‐ the type of system, program, or Building permit database entry field report the data is originally collected into When is it available‐ the frequency that the data is As needed available from the original system/program/report (reporting frequency/timing may differ from data availability) How it will be reported/integrated‐ the report or Building permit database report system that the data results are integrated from for the monitoring report Step 3 Report Results Regular reporting is necessary to identify trends, know the status of the buildable lands supply, and promote transparency and accessibility of information. Monitoring reports shall be developed at regular intervals and on an as needed basis. The reports include varying levels of detail depending on the level of analysis warranted, and are presented in a clear and concise manner. Each report includes annual trends in the data and as needed, cumulative trends since the beginning of the planning period (2012). It is also important to put the results into context by projecting the actual monitoring results over the 20‐year planning period (2012‐2032) and comparing the actual results to the original Envision Eugene planning assumptions. Some data may be available in a relatively “live” format on the city’s website. Examples may include the number of building permits issued by use category and an approximation of available buildable land supply. However, the most comprehensive and verified information shall be available in one of the following report types: a. Annual Report: An annual report includes information on development activity and the available buildable land supply. The trends of key data related to development activity and land supply is the focus of these reports. An accompanying narrative is kept to a minimum but generally includes a brief overview of the monitoring review period and focus of the report, explanation of the supporting graphs/tables, and highlighting any key trends in the context of the Envision Eugene planning goals. b. 3 Year Report: A comprehensive report is provided every 3 years and includes information on development activity, the available buildable land supply, and economic and demographic data. The trends of key data as well as other relevant data identified in Appendix B and an evaluation of the effectiveness of the Envision Eugene strategies is the focus of the report. A more lengthy narrative is warranted, including all of the components of the annual report and as well as detail regarding longer‐ term trends (e.g. trends since 2012), a broader range of data sets, the relationship of necessary secondary and conditional data to key data, an evaluation of the effectiveness of Envision Eugene strategies, and brief summaries of economic and demographic trends where necessary. c. As Needed: Additional reports may also be provided on an as needed basis, for example due to city, state or federal changes (to assess any impact of regulation or programmatic changes on the buildable Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 7 PC Agenda - Page 9  lands supply), an external event, new studies, or to monitor trends that require a longer timeframe than five years to evaluate. As needed reports focus on trends in data relevant to the circumstances initiating the report. Information may be presented at either an annual or 3 year report level of detail and narrative. Reporting Framework Annual Report 3‐yr Report As Needed Report Report Timelines Initiate First Report Following adoption early Early 2018 As needed 2015 First Report Timeframe 1/1/13‐12/31/14* 1/1/13‐12/31/17 As needed Baseline Year 2012 BLI + efficiency strategies (UGB adoption date) Report Components Key Data X X X (if applicable) (e.g. housing mix) Secondary Data X (if applicable) X X (if applicable) (e.g. housing affordability) Conditional Data X (if applicable) X (if applicable) X (e.g. regional construction data) Qualitative Analysis To be determined To be determined To be determined Data Reporting Intervals Annual; the actual totals for the reporting year Cumulative; the sum actual totals per year since the baseline year (2012) Data Context The actual annual and cumulative results is put into context, where necessary, through: ‐Linear projection of the actual totals over the 20‐year planning period ‐Comparison of the actual totals to linear projections of the original Envision Eugene assumptions over the 20‐year planning period ‐Comparison of the actual totals to linear projections of the original Envision Eugene assumptions as adjusted by actual population growth as a percentage of the total estimated population growth over 20‐year planning period *The first annual report will be prepared following adoption and cover any full calendar year(s) between the 2012 BLI (12/31/12) and the date of adoption. After that, annual reports will be prepared every year. Step 4 Analyze Results The monitoring results are reviewed to determine if they are ready for public distribution or if an in‐depth level of review is needed. Analysis of the results is coordinated primarily with a technical advisory committee (TAC), with the Planning Commission and Sustainability Commission reviewing the analysisThe monitoring results are reviewed as follows: Initial Review The initial monitoring reports, including staff’s assessment of what the results mean, are reviewed by the TAC. The TAC reviews for errors as well as provides technical expertise such as regarding if data is performing outside of the normal projections, if there are gaps in the data and whether an in‐depth level of review is needed. This may entail looking at past trends, annual and cumulative results, reasonable ranges for the data, related secondary or conditional data, and 20 year trend projections. It is anticipated that the results of most annual monitoring reports (and some as needed reports) will be a simple review, where after reviewing the trend using one or more of the previously identified tools, the trends are determined to be relatively in‐line with the Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 8 PC Agenda - Page 10 previous planning assumptions and no additional review is necessary. If an in‐depth review is not necessary, the annual monitoring or as needed report can be publically released. In‐depth Review Triggers In some cases, a more in‐depth level of review of the monitoring results may be necessary to understand both the causes and implications of the information reported. Circumstances that may necessitate an in‐depth review for each report type include:  Annual Report‐ The annual report includes a significant variation of some data from the initial planning assumptions. “Significant variation” may include one or more of the following: a. A new population forecast for Eugene’s UGB is issued by Portland State University b. The key data when projected out shows a significant divergence from the assumed trend by the end of the 20‐year planning period (see Appendix H, Range Variations for Quantitative Data) c. Multiple data sets appear to be in a divergent trend d. At least 50% of the forecasted population is met (placeholder until HB 2254 rules are complete) e. At least 50% of the buildable land is developed (placeholder until HB 2254 rules are complete)  3 year Report‐ All 3 year reports warrant an in‐depth review.  As Needed Report‐ As needed reports may require an in‐depth review depending on the circumstances that initiated the reporting.  In‐depth review of any report may be initiated for other reasons as directed by City Council. In‐depth Review Process An in‐depth review is defined by additional rigor in determining the cause, magnitude, and implications of data trends, as well as the potential for recommended actions. In‐depth review is conducted as a partnership between staff and the TAC, and may include one or more of the following activities:  One or more TAC meetings  Analysis of exploratory questions regarding any divergent trends. Questions could include, for example: Is the data set too small to make any assumptions about? Is one project skewing the results? Are changes driven by a major economic, natural, cultural event? If yes, was it a one‐time event? Does the divergence look like a fluctuation or is it an actual changing trend?  Exploring hypothetical scenarios of what would be necessary to get the data projections back in line with the original projections  Use of a land use simulation software that is relevant to the monitoring analysis, such as UrbanSim (http://www.urbansim.org), to help visualize the impacts of the data results  Discussion of options to adapt to changing trends and needs  TAC recommendation to staff regarding potential actions (Step 3), including pros and cons for implementing or not implementing the recommended action Recommendations  TAC Review & Recommendation. Based on the in‐depth review, the TAC may make a recommendation to staff regarding whether additional action, or a range of actions, should be taken. Considerations may include: o Is there an action the City can take in the context of addressing development capacity, or is it out of the City’s control? o Is action necessary in the context of the planning period, or is there enough time left in the planning period for the divergent trends to align with the projections? Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 9 PC Agenda - Page 11  o The TAC could recommend that action is not necessary at this time. In this case, the report can be released to the public with no further review necessary. o The TAC could recommend that action is necessary, and if so, provide an action recommendation to staff. Step 5 Take Action Following an in‐depth analysis, a determination must be made regarding whether or not the monitoring results warrant action by the city to address changing trends and needs. The process for making this determination allows for rational analysis, transparency, and participation while protecting the community’s investment in planning efforts and ensuring a needed measure of adaptability. Action Decision The TAC and staff recommendations for moving forward may warrant additional review and/or a decision from others including the general public, the City Manager, the Planning Commission, the Sustainability Commission or the City Council. The Planning Commission and Sustainability Commission are important reviewers in this analysis. For instance, a recommendation to start a new UGB planning review process (action option d) is a new project that ultimately must be directed to staff by the City Council. Action Options Because predicting future growth needs is challenging, a wide spectrum of potential actions must be considered to meet the community’s needs and changing circumstances. Recommended actions may include the following: a. Do nothing; wait and see how the trends play out for one or more years b. Direct staff to explore contingency measures, i.e. possible future actions that may be considered later if trend divergence continues. These could include a) focusing on programmatic efforts to slow consumption of land supply within the existing Envision Eugene policy framework, such as through greater investment in current programs, b) undertaking urban reserve planning to identify where future UGB expansion might occur, or c) reconsideration of previous City Council actions or policies that may be relevant to the current situation c. Direct staff to implement new or previously identified solutions (e.g. previously identified contingency measures under b) d. Direct staff to accelerate a new UGB planning review process (current date of next comprehensive review is 2032, or planning year 20). This option may require consideration of a new policy framework from Envision Eugene, new efficiency measures, and new UGB expansion areas. Step 6 Program Evaluation The Monitoring Program shall be periodically evaluated to ensure efficiency, accuracy and that the program goals are being achieved. The collection and reporting tasks identified in the Monitoring Program have been developed without full knowledge of how the information will be used in the future. This calls for a system that is both comprehensive and flexible. To ensure the adaptability and success of the program over time, a comprehensive evaluation shall be conducted approximately every three years. Review of program adjustments may be conducted as follows:  Adjustments regarding data collection will be reviewed by the TAC at least annually  Major adjustments to the program, such as reporting frequency or in‐depth review triggers and process, will be reviewed by the TAC and other bodies as necessary Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 10 PC Agenda - Page 12 Appendices A. TAC Operating Framework (draft outline) B. Key Questions & Key Data C. Data Reporting Types By Pillar D. Quantitative Data List E. Qualitative Assessment Framework (To be developed) F. Quantitative Data collection methods G. Data Definitions & Relevance (page 1 draft only) H. Range Variations for Quantitative data (To be developed) Growth Monitoring Plan‐ Draft for June 2015 pg. 11 PC Agenda - Page 13  Key Questions and Key Data ‐Related to land supply, dwellings and jobs Key Questions Sub‐ Questions Key Data Reporting Frequency General: Are actual population estimates in line  Is there a new PSU population  PSU annual population estimate  Annual with the 20‐ year population forecast? forecast?  New population forecast  Has the University revised its  University growth projections growth estimates? Are household assumptions consistent  Household size  5‐ Year with what was anticipated? Is the actual housing mix of new  How many new single‐family  Number of new housing units by  Annual construction in line with what was homes? structure type anticipated?  How many new multi‐family homes? Is the actual job growth rate in line with  Is there a new employment  Number of jobs by employment  Annual what was anticipated? forecast? sector  Employment growth forecast Attachment B TRG 3/13/14 pg. 1 PC Agenda - Page 14  Key Questions Sub‐ Questions Key Data Reporting Frequency Land Supply: Single‐Family Housing Is land for single‐family homes being  What percent of vacant land  Acres of vacant land in supply  Annual consumed at a rate that was expected? has been built on?  Acres of partially vacant land in  What percent of partially supply vacant land has been built on?  Density  At what density are new  Amount of Redevelopment on homes being constructed? LDR land  What percent of anticipated  Number of group quarters redevelopment has occurred?  Acres of parks purchased, and  What percent of anticipated infrastructure, commercial, or “other uses” have occurred on multi‐family built on LDR land LDR lands? Are efficiency measures successfully  How many alley access lots  Number of alley access lots/  Annual working to increase expected single‐ have been created/ dwellings family homes through alley access lots constructed?  Number of secondary dwelling and secondary dwelling units?  How many secondary dwelling units units have been constructed? Have lands for single‐family homes  Inside UGB  Capacity of lands newly served by  Annual become available through  In UGB expansion area infrastructure inside existing UGB infrastructure extension?  Capacity of lands newly served by infrastructure in expansion areas Have new regulations gone into place  Acres lost/gained in buildable  As needed that have an effect on the buildable lands supply due to new lands supply? regulations TRG 3/13/14 pg. 2 PC Agenda - Page 15  Key Questions Sub‐ Questions Key Data Reporting Frequency Land Supply: Multi‐Family Housing Is land for multi‐family homes being  What percent of vacant land has  Acres of vacant land in supply  Annual consumed at a rate that was been built on?  Acres of partially vacant land in expected?  What percent of partially vacant supply land has been built on?  Density  At what density are new homes  Amount of Redevelopment on being constructed? commercial/ MDR/ HDR lands  What percent of anticipated  Number of group quarters redevelopment has occurred on  Acres of parks purchased, and MDR/HDR land? infrastructure, U of O,  What percent of anticipated commercial, or single‐family built redevelopment has occurred on on MDR/HDR land commercial land?  What percent of anticipated “other uses” have occurred on MDR/HDR land Are efficiency measures (investments)  How many additional multi‐  Amount of Redevelopment on  Annual successfully working to create multi‐ family homes have been built commercial/ MDR/ HDR lands family homes through redevelopment through redevelopment?  Use of incentives (MUPTE, LIPTE, activity?  What efficiency measures/ Vertical Housing Program, investments have been Opportunity Siting) employed? Where? Have new regulations gone into place  Acres lost/gained in buildable  As needed that have an effect on the buildable lands supply due to new lands supply? regulations TRG 3/13/14 pg. 3 PC Agenda - Page 16  Key Questions Sub‐ Questions Key Data Reporting Frequency Land Supply: Commercial Jobs Is land for commercial jobs being  What percent of vacant land has  Acres of vacant land in supply  Annual consumed at a rate that was been built on?  Acres of partially vacant land in expected?  What percent of partially vacant supply land has been built on?  Amount of building capacity  Job densities? added  What percent of anticipated  Amount of Redevelopment on redevelopment has occurred on commercial lands commercial land?  Acres of parks purchased, and  What percent of anticipated infrastructure, U of O, or multi‐ “other uses” have occurred on family built on commercial land commercial land Are efficiency measures (expanding  How many commercial jobs have  Amount of Redevelopment on  Annual flexibility and providing investments) been added in the campus commercial lands successfully working to create industrial areas?  Which investment tools have been commercial jobs  How many commercial jobs have used? been added in West Eugene?  How many commercial jobs have been added as a result of investment tools Have new regulations gone into place  Acres lost/gained in buildable  As needed that have an effect on the buildable lands supply due to new lands supply? regulations TRG 3/13/14 pg. 4 PC Agenda - Page 17  Key Questions Sub‐ Questions Key Data Reporting Frequency Land Supply: Industrial Jobs Is land for industrial jobs being  What percent of vacant land has  Acres of vacant land in supply  Annual consumed at a rate that was been built on (by size class)?  Acres of partially vacant land in expected?  Job densities? supply  Is redevelopment occurring as  Amount of building capacity anticipated added  How many industrial sites have  Amount of Redevelopment on been subdivided? industrial lands  Acres of infrastructure on industrial land Are efficiency measures (parcel  How many sites have been  Acres and size of sites created  Annual assembly and brownfield clean‐up) created through parcel through industrial parcel successfully working to create assembly?  Acres addressed through industrial jobs?  How many sites have been made Brownfield program & useable through brownfield development clean‐up  Amount of building capacity added Have jobs been created in industrial  How many sites have developed?  Number and size of vacant and  Annual expansion areas?  What size class? partially vacant acres that  How many jobs? developed in expansion area  Building capacity created  Number of jobs TRG 3/13/14 pg. 5 PC Agenda - Page 18  Key Questions Sub‐ Questions Key Data Reporting Frequency Other: TRG 3/13/14 pg. 6 PC Agenda - Page 19  Quantitative Monitoring‐ Draft List General Trends Residential Development Trends Employment Development Other Data Efficiency Strategies & (permit data) Trends (permit data) Investment PSU annual population Number of housing units* Building capacity* 20‐minute neighborhood Alley access lots* estimate* Density* ¹ ² Structure type index/report ² Secondary dwelling units* Acres of vacant and Structure type (housing mix)* Structure size Building footprint (SDUs) partially vacant land in Structure size Use type Parking spaces Land acquisition program & supply* Number of bedrooms (multi‐family) Lot size Number of floors development* (for University growth Lot size Net to gross Building to site square affordable housing) projections* Net to gross Home offices footage ratio Controlled income & rent Type of land developed* Open space (single‐family) Non‐employment designation Improvement value units* (vacant, partially vacant, Distance to parks (multi‐family) jobs Valuation Key Corridors & Core redevelopment) Land in non‐residential use* Existing built space Demolitions Commercial Areas Plan designation & Submitted vs approved dwellings Land in non‐employment use* Public surplus land development* zoning* (land use apps) Impact of new regulations* Area Planning development* Location* Capacity of newly served Multiple Unit Property Tax Land divisions land* Exemption (MUPTE) program & development* General Residential Trends General Employment Trends Regional Trends Vertical housing program & development* Vacancy rate Employment growth forecast* Regional residential Opportunity Siting program Household size* Number of jobs by construction data & development* Householder age employment sector* Regional housing cost data Brownfield program & Household composition Vacancy rate Vehicle miles traveled¹ ² development* Group quarters* Average wage Mode split¹ ² Tax increment financing Housing cost data Unemployment rate LTD ridership¹ ² program & development* Housing cost as % of income Commercial lease rates Commuting trends¹ ² Development loans/ Household income incentives program & Housing tenure development* Housing & transportation index Enterprise zone program & City subsidized low income units development* (sum of programs) E‐commerce zone program Low Income Rental Housing & development* Property Tax Exemption (LIRPTE) Industrial parcel assembly* development Systems development Low Income Tax Exemption (LITE) charges (SDC) adjusted* development No‐cost pre‐application Notes: meetings* Foreclosure assistance units ‐ * indicates key data to collect and report on more frequently than other data Homebuyer assistance units ‐ Bold data is new data to collect, non‐bold data is already collected or reviewed in some manner. Rental rehabilitation units ‐ Some data is in anticipation of new programs being established per the Envision Eugene pillar strategies Homeowner rehabilitation units or actions. Attachment C 4/23/15 Emergency minor home repair units ‐ ¹ indicates potential transportation system plan monitoring item PC Agenda - Page 20 Attached housing loan units ‐ ² indicates potential Climate and Energy Action Plan monitoring item  Attachment D GROWTH MONITORING PROGRAM. Growth Monitoring Program – Purpose The purpose of the Growth Monitoring Program is to provide the information needed by the community and decision makers to periodically assess the validity of growth planning assumptions and inform the effectiveness of strategies adopted as part of the comprehensive plan and urban growth boundary. The Monitoring Program both demonstrates and formalizes the City’s commitment to a growth plan that is flexible enough to address changing conditions and needs in the community. Growth Monitoring Program – Goals The Growth Monitoring Program is intended to provide a recurring feedback loop that compares previous assumptions to actual occurrences to determine if any additional action is needed and then continues the monitoring cycle. This program is intended achieve the following key goals: 1) To have data that is complete and relevant to future needs, 2) To collect data efficiently, 3) To provide accessible, transparent information to the community, 4) To regularly assess current status of the land supply, 5) To regularly assess the effectiveness of land use efficiency strategies, 6) To identify growth planning trends, and 7) To be a program that is continually evaluated and adjusted to respond to changing needs. Growth Monitoring Program – Intention The intention of the Growth Monitoring Program is to use information and analysis gathered through the program to inform future policy decisions related to growth management. Growth Monitoring Program – Program Components To achieve the above goals, the Growth Monitoring Program shall include components such as relevant data collection, analyzing and reporting monitoring results, determination of any necessary action, and Growth Monitoring Program evaluation. Examples of relevant data and trends to be examined include but are not limited to population growth, housing type mix and density, housing affordability, employment growth rate, employment development, amount and type of land supply developed and the amount of homes or jobs developed with land use efficiency strategies. See the Growth Monitoring Plan document for more information. Growth Monitoring Program – Technical Advisory Committee The review and analysis of monitoring shall be coordinated with a technical advisory committee (TAC). The TAC members shall be appointed by the City Manager and comprised of community members with diverse interests and areas PC Agenda - Page 21 of technical expertise. Examples of TAC responsibilities may include review monitoring reports, explore related technical questions to further a factual understanding of conditions, and to recommend to staff possible actions, or a range of actions, that may be needed to address changing trends. Growth Monitoring Plan – Reporting The city manager shall report to the city council on relevant monitoring data and recommendations as follows: 1) Provide an annual report on key data. 2) Provide a comprehensive report at least every three years. 3) Provide additional reports on an as needed basis. The reporting frequency for each monitoring data will be determined in consultation with the TAC and may be adjusted through the program evaluation process. Growth Monitoring Plan – Program Evaluation The Monitoring Program shall be periodically evaluated to ensure efficiency, accuracy and that the program goals are being achieved. The program evaluation schedule will be provided in the Growth Monitoring Plan. The program evaluation schedule may include the following steps: 1) Adjustments regarding data collection will be reviewed by the TAC at least annually. 2) Major adjustments to the program, such as reporting frequency or in-depth review triggers and process, will be reviewed by the TAC and other bodies as necessary. PC Agenda - Page 22