SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee
Regular MeetingGainesville, FL · February 11, 2025
Minutes
City of Gainesville
SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee Meeting
MINUTES
February 11, 2025, 6:00 p.m.
Historic Thomas Center, Building A
302 NE 6th Ave
Gainesville, FL 32601
Members Present: Mary Lou Hildreth, Aymee Cepeda,
Charmaine Henry, Michael Pellett, Clark
Wood, Casey Willits, Helen Warren
Members Absent: Jamie Bell, James Ingle, Megan Atwater
_____________________________________________________________________
A. CALL TO ORDER - 6:03 p.m.
B. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA
Moved by Casey Willits
Seconded by Helen Warren
Aye (7): Mary Lou Hildreth, Aymee Cepeda, Charmaine Henry, Michael Pellett,
Clark Wood, Casey Willits, and Helen Warren
Approved (7 to 0)
C. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES
1. Approve Minutes of the October 10, 2023; November 14, 2023; and
February 13, 2024 Meetings
Recommendation: The SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee
approve the minutes from the October 10, 2023; November 14, 2023; and
February 13, 2024 meetings.
1
Moved by Casey Willits
Seconded by Aymee Cepeda
Aye (7): Mary Lou Hildreth, Aymee Cepeda, Charmaine Henry, Michael
Pellett, Clark Wood, Casey Willits, and Helen Warren
Approved (7 to 0)
D. BUSINESS DISCUSSION ITEMS
1. 2025-96 Election of Officers (B)
Moved by Casey Willits
Seconded by Aymee Cepeda
Motion: To elect Mary Lou Hildreth as Chair, Jamie Bell as Vice-
Chair, and Clark Wood as Secretary.
Aye (7): Mary Lou Hildreth, Aymee Cepeda, Charmaine Henry, James
Ingle, Clark Wood, Casey Willits, and Helen Warren
Approved (7 to 0)
2. 2025-107 Introduction and Discussion (B)
John Wachtel made a presentation.
Recommendation: The AHAC hear a presentation, discuss the questions
posed, and take action deemed necessary.
Heard
E. PUBLIC COMMENT
F. MEMBER COMMENT
G. NEXT MEETING DATE - March 11, 2025
H. ADJOURNMENT - 7:35 p.m.
2
Agenda
City of Gainesville
SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee Meeting
AGENDA
Date: Tuesday, February 11, 2025, 6:00 p.m.
Location: Historic Thomas Center, Building A
302 NE 6th Ave
Gainesville, FL 32601
Jamie Bell, Mary Lou Hildreth, Aymee Cepeda,
Charmaine Henry, James Ingle,
Members: Michael Pellett, Megan Atwater, Clark Wood,
Casey Willits, Helen Warren
If you have a disability and need an accommodation in order to participate in this meeting, please
contact the Office of Equity and Inclusion at (352) 334-5051 at least two business days in advance.
TTY (Text Telephone Telecommunication Device) users please call 711 (Florida Relay Service). For
Speech to Speech (STS) relay, please call 1-877-955-5334. For STS Spanish relay, please call 1-
877-955-8773. For STS French Creole relay, please call 1-877-955-8707.
Pages
A. CALL TO ORDER
Agenda Statement: The City of Gainesville encourages civil public speech.
Disruptive behavior is not permitted during City Commission and Advisory Board
meetings. Please do not bring food, drinks, props, signs, posters, or similar
materials into the meeting room.
B. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA
C. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES
1. Approve Minutes of the October 10, 2023; November 14, 2023; and 3
February 13, 2024 Meetings
Recommendation: The SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee
approve the minutes from the October 10, 2023; November 14, 2023;
and February 13, 2024 meetings.
D. BUSINESS DISCUSSION ITEMS
1. 2025-96 Election of Officers (B) 9
Department: Housing & Community Development
Description: The Affordable Housing Advisory Committee will nominate
and elect officers.
Fiscal Note: N/A
2. 2025-107 Introduction and Discussion (B) 11
Department: Housing & Community Development
Description: The Affordable Housing Advisory Committee (AHAC) will
review the State Housing Initiatives Partnership (SHIP) Program and the
statutory basis for SHIP and the AHAC. The AHAC will then discuss its
tasks, goals, and priorities for 2025.
Fiscal Note: N/A
Recommendation: The AHAC hear a presentation, discuss the questions
posed, and take action deemed necessary.
E. PUBLIC COMMENT
F. MEMBER COMMENT
G. NEXT MEETING DATE - March 11, 2025
H. ADJOURNMENT
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City of Gainesville
SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee Meeting
MINUTES
October 10, 2023, 6:00 p.m.
Historic Thomas Center, Building B
306 NE 6th Avenue
Gainesville, FL
Members Present: Aymee Cepeda, Charmaine Henry, Mary
Lou Hildreth, Saeed Khan, Reina Saco,
Octavia Washington
Members Absent: Jamie Bell, Fred Schilffarth, Belinda Smith
Alternate Present: Cynthia Chestnut
_____________________________________________________________________
A. CALL TO ORDER - 6:07 p.m.
B. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA
Moved by Reina Saco
Seconded by Aymee Cepeda
Motion: The SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee adopt the
agenda.
Aye (6): Aymee Cepeda, Charmaine Henry, Mary Lou Hildreth, Saeed Khan,
Reina Saco, and Octavia Washington
Approved (6 to 0)
C. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES
There were no Minutes to approve.
1
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D. BUSINESS DISCUSSION ITEMS
1. 2023-942 Review Draft Incentives and Recommendations Report (B)
The Committee reviewed the Draft IRR and each of its recommendations.
In particular, the Committee wanted to keep the second Additional
Recommendation to Facilitate Homeowner Repair Program. They then
discussed a new, Additional Recommendation. That recommendation
related to a reliable, effective, and equitable transportation system.
Moved by Reina Saco
Seconded by Aymee Cepeda
Recommendation: The AHAC review the attached Draft 2023 IRR; and
discuss any specific changes needed.
Motion: Approve the Draft IRR with the addition of a new
recommendation related to a reliable, effective, and equitable
transportation system; also keep the second Additional
Recommendation to Facilitate Homeowner Repair Program.
Aye (6): Aymee Cepeda, Charmaine Henry, Mary Lou Hildreth, Saeed
Khan, Reina Saco, and Octavia Washington
Approved (6 to 0)
E. PUBLIC COMMENT
None
F. MEMBER COMMENT
None
G. NEXT MEETING DATE--November 14, 2023
H. ADJOURNMENT - 7:20 p.m.
2
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City of Gainesville
SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee Meeting
MINUTES
November 14, 2023, 6:00 p.m.
Historic Thomas Center, Building B
306 NE 6th Avenue
Gainesville, FL
Members Present: Jamie Bell, Saeed Khan, Reina Saco,
Fred Schilffarth, Octavia Washington,
Charmaine Henry
Members Absent: Aymee Cepeda, Mary Lou Hildreth,
Belinda Smith
_____________________________________________________________________
A. CALL TO ORDER - 6:07 p.m.
B. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA
Moved by Fred Schilffarth
Seconded by Saeed Khan
Motion: The SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee adopt the
agenda.
Approved
C. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES
There were no minutes to approve at this meeting.
D. BUSINESS DISCUSSION ITEMS
1. 2023-1019 Adoption of the 2023 Incentives and Recommendations
Report (B)
1
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Moved by Reina Saco
Seconded by Fred Schilffarth
Recommendation: The Affordable Housing Advisory Committee: 1)
receive a presentation from staff; 2) receive public comments; 3) adopt the
2023 Incentive and Recommendations Report; and 4) authorize staff to
submit the 2023 Incentive and Recommendations Report, on behalf of the
Committee, to the City Commission.
Approved as Recommended
2. 2023-1042 Discussion of IRR Presentation to City Commission (NB)
After the Committee discussed the details, the Chair agreed to represent
the AHAC and make the presentation to the City Commission.
Recommendation: The Chair elect to present the Incentives and
Recommendations Report to the City Commission or designate another
member to do so.
E. PUBLIC COMMENT
There was no public comment at this meeting.
F. MEMBER COMMENT
There was no additional member comment at this meeting.
G. NEXT MEETING DATE - January 9, 2024 (Tentative)
H. ADJOURNMENT - 6:40 p.m.
2
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City of Gainesville
SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee Meeting
MINUTES
February 13, 2024, 6:00 p.m.
Historic Thomas Center, Building A
302 NE 6th Ave
Gainesville, FL 32601
Members Present: Aymee Cepeda, Charmaine Henry,
Commissioner Reina Saco, Fred
Schilffarth, Octavia Washington, Michael
Pellett
Members Absent: Jamie Bell, Mary Lou Hildreth, Megan
Atwater
_____________________________________________________________________
A. CALL TO ORDER - 6:05 p.m.
B. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA
Moved by Commissioner Saco
Seconded by Fred Schilffarth
Motion: The SHIP - Affordable Housing Advisory Committee adopt the
agenda.
Approved
C. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES
There were no Minutes to approve at this meeting.
D. BUSINESS DISCUSSION ITEMS
1. 2024-128 Legal Context of Affordable Housing Advisory Committee
(B)
1
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The Committee listened to a presentation from Senior Assistant City
Attorney, Sean McDermott. The Presentation informed the Committee
regarding the City and the AHAC's Authority and Powers, the Sunshine
Law, Public Records Law, Ethics Law, Legislative vs. Quasi-Judicial
Decisions.
Recommendation: The Affordable Housing Advisory Committee hear a
presentation from the City Attorney’s Office.
2. 2024-126 Election of Officers (B)
Moved by Commissioner Saco
Seconded by Michael Pellett
Recommendation: AHAC members: 1) nominate at least one member for
Chair, Vice-Chair, and Secretary; and 2) elect a Chair, Vice-Chair, and
Secretary.
Motion: Commissioner Saco moved Jamie Bell for Chair; Mary Lou
Hildreth for Vice-Chair; and Fred Schilffarth for Secretary.
Approved
3. 2024-135 Calendar Year 2023 Report to the City Commission (NB)
The AHAC discussed the questions that the City Commission requested
them to answer, along with their activities over the previous year, and the
tasks they wished to accomplish during the upcoming year. Mr. Wachtel
took notes for future discussions.
Recommendation: The AHAC: 1) discuss its activities during 2023 and
answer the City Commission’s questions about those activities; and 2)
appoint a member to develop a draft report.
E. PUBLIC COMMENT
There were no public comments.
F. MEMBER COMMENT
There were no additional member comments.
G. NEXT MEETING DATE - March 12, 2024
H. ADJOURNMENT - 7:18 p.m.
2
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City of Gainesville
Agenda Item Report
File Number: 2025-96
Agenda Date: February 11, 2025
Department: Department of Housing & Community Development
Title: 2025-96 Election of Officers (B)
Department: Housing & Community Development
Description: The Affordable Housing Advisory Committee will nominate and elect
officers.
Fiscal Note: N/A
Explanation: Typically, at the first meeting of each calendar year, the Affordable
Housing Advisory Committee (AHAC) nominates and elects officers from its
membership. Usually, AHAC elects the following three officers: 1) the Chair, who
administers the meetings; 2) the Vice-Chair, who serves as the Chair when the Chair is
absent; and 3) the Secretary, who coordinates with the Staff Liaison to record votes and
produce meeting minutes.
Strategic Connection:
☐ Goal 1: Equitable Community
☐ Goal 2: More Sustainable Community
☒ Goal 3: A Great Place to Live and Experience
☐ Goal 4: Resilient Local Economy
☐ Goal 5: “Best in Class” Neighbor Services
Recommendation: AHAC Members: 1) nominate at least one member for Chair, Vice-
Chair, and Secretary; and 2) elect a Chair, Vice-Chair, and Secretary.
Page 9 of 62
2025-96A
AHAC Officers Election Form—Calendar Year 2025
February 11, 2025
AHAC Member Name: ____________________________________________________
Chair
Nominations Place “X” by Chosen Nomination (Chose only 1)
Vice-Chair
Nominations Place “X” by Chosen Nomination (Chose only 1)
Secretary
Nominations Place “X” by Chosen Nomination (Chose only 1)
Page 10 of 62
City of Gainesville
Agenda Item Report
File Number: 2025-107
Agenda Date: February 11, 2025
Department: Department of Housing & Community Development
Title: 2025-107 Introduction and Discussion (B)
Department: Housing & Community Development
Description: The Affordable Housing Advisory Committee (AHAC) will review the State
Housing Initiatives Partnership (SHIP) Program and the statutory basis for SHIP and the
AHAC. The AHAC will then discuss its tasks, goals, and priorities for 2025.
Fiscal Note: N/A
Explanation: In order to set its goals for the year, the AHAC needs to consider the
following factors:
1. What is its statutory task and purpose (Note: The AHAC should recognize that
the statute is a minimum requirement. The AHAC is free to go beyond that
requirement.)?
2. What are its collective priorities?
3. What factors can the City influence?
4. What actions would have the most net positive impact?
The information and questions included in the back up are intended to facilitate a
discussion and help the Committee set goals and priorities for the year.
Strategic Connection:
☐ Goal 1: Equitable Community
☐ Goal 2: More Sustainable Community
☒ Goal 3: A Great Place to Live and Experience
☐ Goal 4: Resilient Local Economy
☐ Goal 5: “Best in Class” Neighbor Services
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Recommendation: The AHAC hear a presentation, discuss the questions posed, and
take action deemed necessary.
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2025-107A
Affordable Housing Advisory Committee
Introduction and Discussion
February 11, 2025
Thomas Center A
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SHIP Program-Brief History
• State Housing Initiative Partnership
• Created by the Florida Legislature in 1992
• Florida Statutes, Chapter 420, Part VII
• It’s a program and a funding source for affordable housing
• Provides funds to Cities and Counties (Local Governments) to produce
and preserve affordable housing (Homeownership and Rental)
• Emphasis on Home Ownership and Construction
• Some state requirements for participating Local Governments
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SHIP Program-Revenues and Expenditures
• Raises funds through a tax on real estate transactions
• Generally, revenues increase when housing costs increase
• Partnership between affordable housing advocates and the real
estate development community
• City uses SHIP funds several programs, including the following:
• Down Payment Assistance
• Home Repair
• Home Replacement
• Mortgage Foreclosure Assistance
• Counseling and Training
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SHIP Program-AHAC
• Requires participating Local Governments to appoint an Affordable
Housing Advisory Committee (AHAC)
• Legislation describes membership requirements (diverse stakeholders)
• Legislation requires AHAC to develop and submit an Incentives and
Recommendations Report (IRR)
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IRR
• The only requirement of the AHAC
• Discusses Local Governments initiatives to keep housing affordable
• The legislation describes 11 incentives/strategies/recommendations
that the local government must discuss
• AHAC can also make other recommendations in the IRR
Page 17 of 62
Other AHAC Duties
• As assigned by the City Commission
• Annual report to the City Commission
• Funding recommendations for specific affordable housing projects
• AHAC will do this at least twice this year
• Other AHAC initiated tasks
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Discussion Questions-Impacts of New Housing
• Who, if anyone, benefits from new housing?
• Who, if anyone, is negatively impacted when new housing is built?
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Discussion Questions-Effectiveness and
Efficiency
• What impacts the cost of housing?
• What factors can the City influence?
• With respect to housing costs, does supply and demand matter?
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Discussion Questions-Priorities
• What are your priorities?
• Equity and reducing the wealth gap (wealth building)?
• “Yes” means focusing on homeownership, rather than rentals, but providing fewer
affordable units
• Reducing overall housing costs, including lowering rents and building more
rental units?
• “Yes” means providing more affordable rental units, but is less effective at wealth
building
• Increasing housing choice (i.e., cost, location, size, rent or own, detached or
attached, etc.)?
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2025-107B
Alachua County Housing Trends
June 2024
Page 22 of 62
Alachua County single family home prices have reached early boom-era
levels.
$450,000
$400,000 Florida
$350,000
Alachua
$300,000 County
$250,000
In 2022 and the first half of
$200,000 2023, both the county and the
Alachua County experienced
state exceeded their mid-2000s
gentler price increases in the mid-
2000s boom than the state. The peak median sale price. The
$150,000 statewide median reached
county median price peaked at
$315,000 in 2006 (2023 $). $400,000 and the county
$100,000 reached $320,000.
$50,000
$0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Q1-2
Median Single Family Home Sale Price, Gainesville, Alachua County, & Florida, 2003-2023 (2023$)
Source: Shimberg Center analysis of Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data Files. All values in 2023 dollars to correct fo r inflation.
Page 23 of 62
The county added nearly 12,000 rental units between 2012 and 2022, but all of
these increase was in units renting for $1,200 or less (2022 $).
60,000
Net increase
2000-2021:
50,000
6,279 rental units
40,000
More than $1,200
$1,200+ units
Rental Units
30,000 More than $1,200 grew by nearly
13,000
20,000
Change in units
10,000
$1,200 or Less $1,200 or Less below $1,200
was not
0
2012 2022
statistically
significant.
Units by Gross Rent Above/Below $1,000 (2021 $), Alachua County, 2012 & 2022
Source: Shimberg Center tabulation of U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 and 2022 American Community Survey. Year 2012 rents adjusted to 2022 dollars using
Consumer Price Index.
Page 24 of 62
Affordable Housing Terminology
Housing is usually considered to be affordable if it costs no
more than 30% of household income.
Cost burdened: Paying more than 30% of income for owner
or renter costs
Severely cost burdened: Paying more than 50% of income
Area median income (AMI): Used to create standard income
measures across places and household sizes, expressed as %
AMI
Page 25 of 62
Example: 2024 Alachua County Income (% AMI) and Housing Cost
Limits
Max.
Annual income Hourly affordable
Hourly wage,
range wage, monthly
Income level 2 full-time
(1-4 person 1 full-time housing cost
jobs
household) job (1-3 bedroom
unit)
50% AMI $33,350-47,650 $16-$23 $12 $893-$1,239
80% AMI $53,360-76,240 $26-$37 $15-$19 $1,430-$1,983
120% AMI $80,040-114,360 $38-$55 $22-$28 $2,145-$2,974
http://flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/income-and-rent-limits
Page 26 of 62
Very low-income renters make up the largest group of cost-
burdened households in the county, even excluding student renters.
30,000
25,000
11,045
20,000
Households
15,000 29,624 3,305
1,448
10,000
3,197
4,130 925
7,279 10,026 12,702 2,852 788
5,000 5,762
6,006 5,310
4,597
2,814 1,869
1,548
0
0-50% AMI 50.01-80% 80.01- Above 0-50% AMI 50.01-80% 80.01- Above
AMI 120% AMI 120% AMI AMI 120% AMI 120% AMI
Owners Renters
Cost Burdened (more than 30% of income for housing) Not Cost Burdened Student-headed
Households by Tenure, Income (% AMI), and Cost Burden, Alachua County, 2022
Notes: “Student-headed” refers to non-family renter households headed by a full-time student. Counts of cost-burdened households
above 120% AMI and student-headed, owner households above 50% AMI are not statistically significant.
Page 27
Source: Shimberg Center tabulation of U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American of 62 Survey
Community
Housing costs outpace wages for many occupations.
Alachua County housing wage: $21.81/hour
A full-time worker would need to earn this amount to rent a
typical 2BR apartment (HUD Fair Market Rent 2023:
$1,134/mo).
Median wage for Alachua County: $21.72/hour
Sources: National Low Income Housing Coalition, Out of Reach; Shimberg Center tabulation of Florida Department of Commerce,
Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics. Median wage is 2022 annual wage in 2023 dollars.
Page 28 of 62
How much can workers afford to pay for housing each month?
$600-799 $800-999 $1,000-1,200
• Bartenders • Construction Laborers • Auto Techs and Mechanics
• Cashiers • Customer Service Reps • Carpenters
• Childcare Workers • Landscaping and • Correctional Officers
Groundskeeping Workers
• Restaurant Cooks • Dental Assistants
• Light Truck Drivers
• Dishwashers • Firefighters
• Medical Assistants
• Fast Food and Counter Workers • HVAC and Refrigeration
• Nursing Assistants Mechanics
• Food Preparation Workers
• Office Clerks • Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck
• Hairdressers Drivers
• Secretaries and Administrative
• Home Health and Personal Care
Aides Assistants • Median, All Occupations
• Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk • Substitute Teachers • Mental Health and Substance
Clerks • Tellers Abuse Social Workers
• Janitors and Cleaners • Veterinary Techs • Painters
• Laundry and Dry-Cleaning • Pharmacy Techs
Workers • Roofers
• Preschool Teachers
• Receptionists
• Retail Salespersons
• Security Guards
• Waitstaff
Source: Shimberg Center tabulation of Florida Department of Economic Security, Occupational Employment
Statistics and Wages. Based on median wage for occupationsPage
in Alachua
29 of County.
62 Assumes full-time worker,
30% of income spent on housing costs.
Eviction & foreclosure fell sharply in Q2 2020 during the state moratorium, then
increased when filings were permitted again. Eviction filings have now risen above
pre-pandemic levels and foreclosure filings are near pre-pandemic levels.
700
600
Evictions
500
400
300
200
100
Foreclosures
-
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Eviction & Foreclosure Filings, Alachua County
Source: Shimberg Center tabulation of filing data from Florida Clerks & Comptrollers and Office of the
State Courts Administrator. Page 30 of 62
Building a Local Housing System: The Affordable Housing Continuum
Supportive Housing Affordable rental Affordable home
(affordable units + housing ownership
services) • Public housing • Shared equity (e.g.
• Homeless • Subsidized (Florida community land trust)
• Older adults Housing, HUD, USDA) • Down payment assistance
• People with disabilities • Vouchers • Low-interest loans
• Other special needs • NOAH (Naturally • Affordable construction
Occurring Affordable • Home rehab and
Housing) weatherization
Page 31 of 62
Contact
Shimberg Center for Housing Studies
352-273-1192
fhdc-comments@shimberg.ufl.edu
Main site: http://www.shimberg.ufl.edu
Data clearinghouse: http://flhousing.data.shimberg.ufl.edu
Page 32 of 62
2025-107C
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2025-107D
ZONING, HOUSING
ATTAINABILITY, & ADUS
PBCD • JANUARY 17TH, 2020
Page 38 of 62
ANYONE HERE
NOT BELIEVE
AMERICA IS FACING
A HOUSING CRISIS?
Page 39 of 62
WHY DO YOU THINK
AFFORDABLE
HOUSING IS SO
HARD TO PROVIDE?
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LAND
LABOR
LUMBER
LAWS
LOANS
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WHICH OF THESE
ARE IN OUR
CONTROL?
Page 42 of 62
LAND?
LABOR
LUMBER
LAWS?
LOANS
Page 43 of 62
LAND 10-20%
LABOR
LUMBER
LAWS 25-40%
LOANS
Page 44 of 62
LET’S TAKE A LOOK
AT HOW
ZONING
IMPACTS
AFFORDABILITY
Page 45 of 62
BUT FIRST,
SOME CONTEXT...
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PART I:
WHO ARE WE
TODAY?
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1.
THE HOUSING MISMATCH
Page 48 of 62
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS: HOUSEHOLD SIZE
IN THE 1950S, 43% OF
HOUSEHOLDS WERE
NUCLEAR FAMILIES; 9%
WERE SINGLES LIVING
ALONE
DATA SOURCE: AARP Publication - Making Room https://www.aarp.org/livable-communities/housing/info-2018/making-room-housing-for-a-changing-america.html
Page 49 of 62
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS: AGE
BY 2050
22%
OF AMERICANS
WILL BE SENIOR
CITIZENS
Data Source: Arthur C. Nelson
Page 50 of 62
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS: HOUSEHOLD SIZE
Cultivating 1000 small developers
and cities that support them
83%
OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE U.S. WILL HAVE NO
CHILDREN BY 2030
Data Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Reshaping Metropolitan America
Page 51 of 62
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS: HOUSEHOLD SIZE
1950 2017
NUMBER OF PEOPLE
PER HOUSEHOLD 3.8 2.5
AVERAGE SF OF NEW
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME 983 2,571
SF OF LIVING SPACE
PER PERSON 292 1,012 x3.5
DATA SOURCE: AARP Publication: The ABCs of ADUs
Page 52 of 62
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS: HOUSEHOLD SIZE
1950: 3.8 PEOPLE PER HOUSE
50%
MORE HOUSES
NEEDED FOR THE
SAME # OF PEOPLE
2017: 2.5 PEOPLE PER HOUSE
100%
MORE HOUSES
NEEDED FOR THE
SAME # OF PEOPLE
2030: 2.0 +/- PEOPLE PER HOUSE
Page 53 of 62
HOUSING DEMAND
Data Source: Arthur C. Nelson, The Great Senior Short-Sale of Why Policy Inertia Will Short Change Millions of America’s Seniors
Page 54 of 62
HOUSEHOLD TYPES
Data Source: Arthur C. Nelson, The Great Senior Short-Sale of Why Policy Inertia Will Short Change Millions
of America’s Seniors Page 55 of 62
HOUSING DEMAND
Data Source: Arthur C. Nelson, The Great Senior Short-Sale of Why Policy Inertia Will Short Change Millions of America’s Seniors
Page 56 of 62
SUPPLY vs DEMAND: HOUSING TYPE
68%
OF U.S. HOUSING STARTS IN 2012
WERE SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Data Source: HUD, 2014
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SUPPLY vs DEMAND: HOUSING TYPE
70%
OF U.S. HOUSING STARTS IN 2022
WERE SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau and https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/housing-starts#sources
Page 58 of 62
SUPPLY: SMALL HOME
DECLINE OF SMALLER/ STARTER HOME CONSTRUCTION, 1973-2021
45%
40%
PERCENT OF TOTAL NEW HOUSING
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NOTE: SMALLER HOMES REFERS TO
HOMES LESS THAN 1,400 SF
Source: Characteristics of New Housing - U.S. Census. | Note: Smaller home refers to homes under 1,400 square feet.
DATA SOURCE: Characteristics of New Housing - U.S. Census
Page 59 of 62
SUPPLY vs DEMAND: HOUSING TYPE
DATA SOURCE: AARP Publication: Making Room https://www.aarp.org/livable-communities/housing/info-2018/making-room-housing-for-a-changing-america.html
Page 60 of 62
A LACK OF THE RIGHT KIND OF
SUPPLY FOR A GROWING DEMAND
RESULTS IN RISING COSTS
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887 Wylie St, Atlanta, GA 30316 • 404-653 -0553
www.kronbergua.com
Page 62 of 62
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