Planning Commission

Draft PC Minutes were reviewed and approved at the August 13, 2025 PC Meeting. Wilsonville Planning Commission Regular Meeting Minutes July 9, 2025 Wilsonville City Hall & Remote Video Conferencing https://www.ci.wilsonville.or.us/meetings/pc CALL TO ORDER - ROLL CALL Vice Chair Willard called the meeting to order at 6:00 pm. Present: Matt Constantine, Ron Heberlein, Andrew Karr, Sam Scull, Yana Semenova, and Jennifer Willard. Excused: Nicole Hendrix Staff Present: Daniel Pauly, Miranda Bateschell, Cindy Luxhoj, Matt Lorenzen, Mandi Simmons PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE The Pledge of Allegiance was recited. CITIZEN INPUT There was none. ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS 1. Consideration of the June 11, 2025 Planning Commission Minutes The June 11, 2025 Planning Commission minutes were accepted as presented. WORK SESSION 2. Wilsonville Industrial Land Readiness (Citywide) (Luxhoj) Associate Planner Luxhoj initiated the Wilsonville Industrial Land Readiness project (WILR) Citywide EOA presentation via PowerPoint, noting WILR aimed to attract high-quality industry and expand economic opportunities in the city. While previous work sessions focused on the Basalt Creek portion of the project, the citywide portion would update the City’s 2012 Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA), which would inform the Economic Development Strategy, maintain compliance with Goal 9 Economic Development and lay the groundwork for strategic planning, infrastructure coordination, and economic development policy for the 20- year planning horizon. (Slides 1-5) Nicole Underwood, Project Manager, ECONorthwest, continued the presentation, summarizing the methodology and draft results of the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). (Attachment 1) (Slides 6-11) Planning Commission Meeting Minutes Page 1 July 09, 2025 Discussion and feedback regarding the project team’s questions (Slide 11) was as follows with Commissioner questions addressed as noted: • Beth Goodman, ECONorthwest, explained a map showing the difference between unconstrained vacant and partially vacant land had been created and the actual developable acreage could be provided. In the area north of Boeckman Road, Industrial lands that were partially vacant were still considered as having capacity; the entire tax lot was shown in blue as being potentially developable, even though only the undeveloped portions were counted toward development capacity. (Slide 10) • Figure 2. Buildable Area Status with Constraints, Wilsonville city limits and UGB area, 2025 on Page 20 of the meeting packet displayed the Wilsonville BLI Development Status and differentiated between vacant land (red) and partially vacant land (orange). The partially vacant designation in Figure 2 was still shown as applying to entire tax lots, not just their undeveloped portions. • Table 3 on Page 21 of the packet provided additional detail and differentiated between buildable land on vacant lots and partially vacant lots with a significant share of capacity available on the latter. • Ms. Underwood and Ms. Goodman clarified a 15 percent slope was not considered unbuildable, but was viewed as less desirable, particularly for industrial uses. That threshold was commonly used across the state, though it was not a Metro standard. Industrial uses typically favored flatter land, often preferring slopes of less than 5 or 10 percent. Land with 10 to 15 percent slope was more likely to attract commercial rather than industrial development. The 15 percent figure was a little permissive for industrial and a little conservative for commercial. In Wilsonville, steeper slopes were uncommon and generally located near other constrained areas like stream banks. • Ms. Luxhoj confirmed the area around Wilsonville Concrete was designated Industrial in the Comprehensive Plan and included the properties extending to the east to Old Town. The northern portion included the OrePac site which had a section south of the existing buildings that were currently unoccupied and considered vacant. Ms. Underwood continued the PowerPoint, presenting the Economic Growth Opportunities and Forecast (Attachment 2), highlighting key economic and commuting trends; Wilsonville employment growth and forecast for 2026-2046; the city’s economic advantages and disadvantages; the two forecasting options and each option’s impact on preliminary land needs; and ECONorthwest’s preliminary conclusions. Ms. Luxhoj reviewed next steps on the project. (Slides 12-24) Discussion and feedback in response to the project team’s questions (Slide 25) was as follows with Commissioner questions addressed as noted: • Ms. Goodman explained that Metro’s Urban Growth Report was done for the full entire Metro Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) Region and resulted from a complicated and sophisticated analysis, looking at a variety of different dynamics. (Slide 20) Planning Commission Meeting Minutes Page 2 July 09, 2025  • Wilsonville had historically experienced faster employment growth than the Metro region overall because while small, the city served as a significant employment center. The Oregon Employment Department (OED) employment growth rate was less transparent, issued every two years, and based on historic data. The OED had good economists looking at the trends and some were countervailing trends. In looking over a long-term period, forecasts were often influenced by the state of the economy at that moment in time, rather than looking out over the next five years, which should frame the City’s policy choices, but not help to know what would happen over the longer term. • The historical employment growth rate assumed Wilsonville would continue growing as it had in the past, which was a bit optimistic because less land was development-ready currently. The Housing Needs and Capacity Analysis (HNCA) assumed employment growth would mirror household growth, which had not historically occurred in Wilsonville. Employment growth had been slower, partly due to the city’s land base, which included a lot of industrial and less commercial development. If the city had more commercial land, commercial growth would be expected to follow population growth, since commercial uses were essentially locally serving. • ECONorthwest set some reasonable sidebars as each forecast provided a plausible scenario ranging from slow to fast growth depending on policy choices, but none accounted for disruptive variables like artificial intelligence. • Concerns and uncertainty were expressed about how unknowns and the changing relationships at various government levels fit into the growth rate calculations. • Ms. Goodman replied that she considers the relative risks and potential policy consequences of getting the forecast wrong. If the household growth forecast was highly overestimated beyond the 1.2% growth, the City might oversize its water and wastewater infrastructure, for example, increasing costs and reducing how competitive Wilsonville would be in the region. If vastly underestimated, the City might not take the policy steps needed to get development land, which would slow growth. A mid-range forecast might result in a land supply that was a bit too small or too big, but there was time to make corrections as needed and without having risked major infrastructure investments with little or no return short-term. • The question was whether Wilsonville was willing and able to do to support economic development in terms of infrastructure investments, etc. • Economic Development Manager Lorenzen added that besides the consequences, he also considers what conditions would be necessary to grow at such an ambitious rate. The City could not forecast aggressive growth until it figured out how to unlock the highly parceled and constrained lands in Coffee Creek and Basalt Creek. Once unlocked, the growth forecasts could be reassessed in five to ten years. • He confirmed the WILR strategy document would identify what was needed to unlock the land, adding that later this month he would present a proposal to City Council for using urban renewal funds in Coffee Creek to proactively purchase and aggregate properties, and position them for development by the private sector. The urban renewal dollars would be used to facilitate development in a meaningful, hands-on way because Planning Commission Meeting Minutes Page 3 July 09, 2025  infrastructure alone was not doing it. This proven model was used by the City of Hillsboro to successfully attract Intel. • The goal was to make larger parcels through aggregation. Contiguous areas existed in Coffee Creek and Basalt Creek, but they were highly parcelized and in many cases partially developed. Some income properties had greater value under the current use than developers were willing to pay, maintaining the status quo. He proposed using Business Oregon programming to allow the City to purchase land at a motivating price for sellers, reduce the value to what a developer could pay, and then seek reimbursement of the difference from Business Oregon, the State’s economic development agency. Though conceptually sound, this model had not yet been executed in Wilsonville. • The OED forecast seemed to make the most sense. There were challenges to maintaining the city’s current growth rates, especially as the city grew. The 20-year forecast horizon would allow for any required corrections if the program with Business Oregon was successful. • What assumptions were made about the current and forecasted numbers of employees doing hybrid work? In previous years, that number was increasing, which no longer seemed to be the case given the current employers market. Hybrid work numbers drive office space needs. • Ms. Underwood stated the hybrid work percentage had stabilized at approximately 30 percent. Office demand was expected to level off at about 70 percent of pre-pandemic needs. While some employers had recalled staff to the office, others had not. Over the next 10 to 20 years, hybrid flexibility could become a competitive advantage for employers. Traditional office space demand was likely to remain limited for the next five to ten years, and existing office space could be utilized. • Ms. Underwood explained the net absorption data in Exhibit 19 of Attachment 2 was based on CoStar data which did not capture the entire market and only reflected leases, not necessarily new space being constructed. The 1 percent historic employment growth and limited deliveries of new Industrial and Flex space, occurring only in 2015 and 2022, indicated that Wilsonville had been using existing space more efficiently. • Some employment growth came from sectors not captured in Industrial buildings, such as contractor establishments, which was not captured as development in Exhibit 19 of the Economic Inventory, nor would redevelopment or a more efficient use of space. • Ms. Goodman noted the employment growth and delivery of space data were very different from each other. CoStar was a sample dataset, tracking some but not all buildings. Additionally, hybrid workers could be a factor; for example, ECONorthwest had more employees but had downsized considerably to a smaller office space since most were hybrid workers. Reuse of vacant spaces and some new buildings also contributed to the trend, making employment growth less dependent on new construction. • How much of the employment growth would need new development, which would drive the need for acreage versus a more efficient use of the existing space or vacant land, etc.? If Planning Commission Meeting Minutes Page 4 July 09, 2025  25 percent of employment growth came from more efficient use of existing space, then only 75 percent would require available land for development. • Ms. Goodman replied the assumption made around commercial land was that a lot of Wilsonville’s commercial growth would happen in either existing built space or through redevelopment, which was harder for less flexible Industrial uses. • ECONorthwest did not try to guess how much employment needs more space vs existing space because it could not be grounded in data. • How Wilsonville had achieved consistent 1 percent annual employment growth without significant new development? • Ms. Underwood noted three developments were not captured in the CoStar dataset, though CoStar was still the best available tool for tracking vacancy and rent trends. • Ms. Goodman added CoStar’s real value was in showing Wilsonville’s trends relative to the broader region, but it was not 100 percent accurate. • The OED forecast was the right forecast to use. However, HNCA should not be included as an option going forward, given that neither local nor state indicators suggested the city would build anywhere near the rate needed to support the HNCA. • Ms. Underwood confirmed the Historical Employment Growth rate (Slide 20) was based on the net change in covered employment. Most years showed a 1 to 4 percent change in growth, except for 2009 when it declined by 8 percent, which made sense after the Great Recession, and 2015 when growth increased by 9 percent with the arrival of Stream Global Services, a big employer. • Ms. Goodman confirmed that OED’s regional employment growth rate was refreshed every two to three years. • The OED forecast was the safest forecast option and positioned Wilsonville to pursue economic opportunities aggressively given the unpredictability of what might happen. • Ms. Luxhoj confirmed the same presentation would be given to City Council along with the Commission’s recommendation for Council to decide which forecast to use. • While the OED option made sense, Industrial land availability in the region had decreased. Hillsboro was out of land and Tigard and Tualatin were land locked, so Wilsonville might be positioned to receive a greater share of Industrial growth. • Mr. Lorenzen agreed, adding capital investment typically flowed where barriers were lowest. While some peer suburban cities had land-locked issues, Sherwood and Tualatin also had capacity like Wilsonville. Wilsonville was economically interconnected with its neighbors, so jobs created in nearby cities would benefit everyone locally. However, Wilsonville must remain competitive with neighboring communities with opportunities. • If the City did not take deliberate action to attract economic growth, there was no point being overly optimistic because growth would not naturally happen without City incentives and clearing the obstacles. The Planning Commission expressed unanimous support for using the OED regional employment growth rate to guide the EOA. (Slide 21) Staff confirmed there was no public comment regarding the citywide EOA. Planning Commission Meeting Minutes Page 5 July 09, 2025 INFORMATIONAL 3. City Council Action Minutes (June 2 & 16, 2025) (No Staff Presentation) 4. PC Work Program (No Staff Presentation) There were no comments. ADJOURNMENT The meeting was adjourned at 7:08 p.m. Planning Commission Meeting Minutes Page 6 July 09, 2025