Planning Commission

PLANNING COMMISSION MINUTES June 12, 2024 6:30 PM Regular Meeting You may view and listen to the meeting in its entirety by going to the Planning Commission page on the City’s website: https://www.regionalwebtv.com/fredpc The agenda, staff report and associated documents are also available on the Planning Commission page: https://www.fredericksburgva.gov/241/Planning-Commission MEMBERS CITY STAFF David Durham, Chairman Chuck Johnston, Director Susanna Finn, Vice-Chairman Mike Craig, Principal Planner Mary-Margaret Marshall, Secretary (remote) Marne Sherman, Senior Development Kenneth Gantt Administrator Adam Lynch (absent) Brian Cooke, Stormwater Manager Carey Whitehead (remote) Tanagra Cafferky, Administrative Assistant Dugan Caswell 1. CALL TO ORDER [00:05:50] Chairman Durham called the meeting to order at 6:35 p.m. in Council Chambers and explained meeting procedures for the public. Members of the public were invited to attend or access this meeting by public access television Cox Channel 84, Verizon Channel 42, or online at https://www.regionalwebtv.com/fredpc. 2. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE 3. DETERMINATION OF A QUORUM [00:08:11] There were four members in chambers and two members remote in attendance at the meeting at the call to order. 4. APPROVAL OF AGENDA [00:08:42] There were no changes to the agenda. Mr. Caswell moved to approve the agenda, Mr. Gantt seconded. Motion passed 6-0. 5. DISCUSSION OF POTENTIAL POLICIES, ORDINANCES, OR APPLICATIONS [00:09:21] A. 2025 Comprehensive Plan Update (Attachment) Mr. Craig presented and discussed the City Council and the Planning Commission joint work session on June 11, 2024 to work on the Comprehensive Plan. There is a two-phase process of updating the Comprehensive Plan.  • The first phase of the process reviews the demographic and economic hard data. Chapter 2 illustrates how data informs various metrics such as population growth, demographics, economic trends, housing costs, and commuting trends. The school data will need further analysis. • The second phase of the process involves the Planning Staff converting the data reports into focused policy chapters that then go through the public hearing process. Mr. Craig requested for the Planning Commissioners to submit their comments to Staff by the end of next week. B. Small Area Plan 5, 8, and 10 Update [00:23:10] Mr. Craig presented. • Area 10 Small Area Plan and Rezoning Public Hearing on June 25, 2024 for proposed changes to the Comprehensive Plan. • Area 5 data review process is nearing completion. A preliminary draft of the Comprehensive Plan based on the data collected will be created this summer. The public hearing process for proposed changes to the Comprehensive Plan should begin sometime this fall. • Area 8 – o A class from University of Mary Washington did an in-depth analysis and report of existing conditions of Area 8. The final presentation by the class of the findings was attended by Mr. Craig, Mr. Thompson, and representatives from the firm Rhodeside & Harwell. Of note was the inclusion of the Deep Run area as a potential asset. o “Kick-Off” Meeting for Area 8 will be on July 17, 2024, with more community meetings scheduled for the fall and winter. Mr. Durham noted the various assets within Area 8 including the pool, parks, trails, and water treatment plant. Mr. Craig reviewed FXBG FORWARD • The timeline slide and the Public Input Opportunities slide illustrate the Comprehensive Plan Process as it relates to community involvement. Community Meetings to discuss concepts will occur in the fall. Drafting the concepts into a workable document will occur mid-winter. Public Hearings on the changes to the Comprehensive Plan will occur in the spring. In total, it takes about a year to set the future vision of the city. • Mr. Craig noted the inclusion of staff being available for questions during various city “pop-up” events, meetings with focus groups, and meetings with stakeholder groups as ways to reach the public beyond the traditional community meeting. The idea is to meet people where they are. • The on-line public survey was set up as another way to gather public input. • The FXBG FORWARD includes story maps and other interactive features. Mr. Durham opened the floor to the Dais for questions. Ms. Marshall and Mr. Craig discussed different public outreach strategies to promote the survey. 6. DECLARATION OF CONFLICTS OF INTEREST OR DISCLOSURES OF CONTACT None. 7. OLD BUSINESS None. 8. PUBLIC HEARING – New [00:38:34] A. UDOTAFY24-05 The City of Fredericksburg proposes amendments to City Code, Chapter 72, § 72-20.6, “Erosion and Sediment Control Program and Virginia Stormwater Management Program Administrator”; § 72-34.5, “Chesapeake Bay Preservation Overlay District”; § 72-54.3 “Stormwater”; and § 72-84, “Definitions”, to Consolidate and Modernize the Erosion and Sediment Control and Stormwater Provisions Consistent with the Code of Virginia Stormwater Manager Brian Cooke presented. State Mandate Code Updates and explanations of code changes: • Chapters 38 and 78 will be consolidated into a Virginia Erosion and Stormwater Management Program. • Better coordination efforts between municipalities. • More coherent submission and enforcement processes can be attained through reduction and consolidation of regulations. • The public hearing tonight is part of the required update process. • UDO changes related to the code updates will need to be recommended by the Planning Commission. Mr. Cooke concluded his presentation. Mr. Durham opened the floor to the Dais for questions. There were none. Mr. Durham opened the public hearing to the public for public comment. There were none in chambers, nor electronically submitted. Mr. Durham closed the public hearing. Mr. Durham asked for a motion regarding the staff recommendation. Mr. Gantt motioned to recommend approval of the staff recommendation of the Stormwater Management Program. Ms. Finn seconded. The motion carried 6-0. 9. OTHER BUSINESS None. 10. GENERAL PUBLIC COMMENT Mr. Durham opened the floor to the public for public comment. There were none in chambers, nor electronically submitted. 11. ADOPTION OF MINUTES [00:49:06] Mr. Durham asked the Dais if the Commission would agree to a procedural change of how minutes are approved. Instead of asking for a motion and a second, the procedure will be the Chair asks if any commissioner has comments that would preclude the minutes being adopted. If there are any factual changes to the minutes, the minutes will be amended and adopted. A. February 14, 2024 Regular Meeting Minutes Mr. Durham asked if any commissioner had comments that would preclude the minutes being adopted. Ms. Whitehead noted the spelling error on page 7 should change from “White House” to “Whitehead”. Mr. Durham requested the meeting minutes adjusted. Mr. Durham declared the meeting minutes adopted. 12. PLANNING COMMISSIONERS COMMENTS [00:50:55] A. Chairman Comments No comments. B. Commissioner Comments Ms. Whitehead asked how best to ask for more information or discussion of topics in the Comprehensive Plan. Mr. Johnston said the Planning Staff are responsible for managing the Comprehensive Plan process. Any questions, comments, or suggestions should be directed to the Planning Staff. Ms. Whitehead and Mr. Johnson discussed changes to Chapter 2 as an example of the updating process. 13. PLANNING DIRECTOR COMMENTS [00:57:18] Mr. Johnston noted: A. Downtown Traffic Engineering Study Update The consultant’s data collection phase has been achieved. The next phase conducted by the consultants will be studying various models based on the data collected. Staff will report on the study’s progress in July or August. Fred Transit presented to City Council on June 11, 2024, a strategic plan. Staff will forward that plan to the Planning Commission for review. This will be a topic of discussion at the next Planning Commission Meeting. Mr. Johnson and the Dais engaged in a discussion of how best to interface the Fred Transit Strategic Plan with the Comprehensive Plan in order to produce complete projects. The discussion also included the procurement process. City of Fredericksburg Demographic + Economic Profile Update June 5, 2024  FT DR Page intentionally left blank. A 2 City of Fredericksburg  FT DR Page intentionally left blank. A Demographic + Economic Profile Update 3 Table of Contents Introduction. ................................................................................................................................................. 6 Demographics.............................................................................................................................................. 7 Economic Context. ....................................................................................................................................12 Summary of Findings. ............................................................................................................................. 18 FT DR A 4 City of Fredericksburg Maps 1. Regional Context......................................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Population Distribution. ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Tables 1. Area Population Projections 2010-2050 . ............................................................................................................. 9 2. Fredericksburg Population By Age Cohort.......................................................................................................... 10 3. Population Projection By Race.................................................................................................................................11 4. Household Characteristics Comparison. ............................................................................................................. 12 5. Median Household Income. .................................................................................................................................... 13 6. Educational Attainment. .......................................................................................................................................... 13 7. Commuting Patterns. ................................................................................................................................................ 14 8. Where do Fredericksburg’s Workers Come From?............................................................................................ 14 FT 9. Employment Distribution in Fredericksburg. ...................................................................................................... 15 10. Unemployment Rate Comparison........................................................................................................................ 17 Figures 1. City of Fredericksburg Population, 1950-2050 (projected). ............................................................................ 7 2. Population Growth by Age Cohort......................................................................................................................... 9 3. Racial Demographics 2022.......................................................................................................................................11 DR 4. Population Projection By Race.................................................................................................................................11 5. Median Household Income Comparison.............................................................................................................. 13 6. Projected Student Total 2028-2029. .................................................................................................................... 18 7. Growth Rate 2023-2029. ......................................................................................................................................... 18 A Demographic + Economic Profile Update 5 Introduction With an area of 10.5 square miles, Fredericksburg is located midway between Washington, D.C. and Richmond, Virginia. The City is part of the George Washington Regional Planning District (Planning District 16), which includes Fredericksburg and four nearby counties: Caroline, King George, Spotsylvania, and Stafford. The City is the regional center for administration, professional services, finance, higher education, medicine, and commerce. Map 1. Regional Context Washington D.C. FT Northern Virginia Stafford Fredericksburg King George DR Spotsylvania Caroline A Richmond Region 6 City of Fredericksburg Demographics Figure 1. Regional Population Growth, 1950-2050 (projected) FT 2022 Fredricksburg Population Estimate: 28,757 (U.S. Census Quickfacts (V2022)) DR Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Using data from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service (University of Virginia) and the U.S. Census, A Figure 1 shows historical and projected population of the City of Fredericksburg and its neighbors. Growth was nearly constant over the second half of the 20th century. Since 2000 the growth rate has increased, reaching 2.02% per year on average over the period 2000-2022. However, growth in the region has exploded particularly in Spotsylvnaia and Stafford Counties from the 1980s to the 2010s. These trends are expected to continue. Population is expected to continue to grow in the City at about 1.1% annually over the next 25 years. The projected growth rate is moderate, not high. The projected population of 39,402 in 2050 represents a 41% increase over the estimated 2022 population (28,757). The comprehensive plan will address the ways that Fredericksburg will accommodate the increase of about 10,600 people over that period. Fredericksburg’s population is growing at 1-2% per year. Demographic + Economic Profile Update 7  Map 2. Population by Census Block Group FT DR A The map above shows Fredericksburg’s population by Census Block Group. A Census Block Group is a geographic area that the U.S. Census Bureau uses to publish demographic data. They are generally drawn to represent areas ranging from 600 to 3,000 people. The block groups in Downtown Fredericksburg have fewer residents than those in the more recently developed western and southern block groups. 8 City of Fredericksburg Table 1 shows that most of the population growth in the George Washington Region is taking place in the surrounding counties, not in the City of Fredericksburg. This reflects the ongoing expansion of suburban development down the I-95 corridor in recent decades and the availability of land for low-density development in the counties. Table 1. Regional Population, 2010-2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Planning District 16 318,812 382,551 431,061 494,414 565,167 Fredericksburg Population 24,286 27,982 31,224 35,051 39,402 Fredericksburg Share 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Figure 2 and Table 2 present Fredericksburg population data by age cohort. The fastest growing cohort is 20-39 years of age, which corresponds to an increase in young families with children in the city. The most FT senior age group (>70 years) is growing this decade but is expected to flatten out by 2040. The number of people in the 50-69 year age group is projected to be constant this decade, but grow modestly after 2030. Figure 2 - Population Growth by Age Cohort DR A Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Demographic + Economic Profile Update 9  Table 2. Fredericksburg Population by Age Cohort Age Group 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Under 5 1,590 1,650 1,941 2,144 2,522 5 to 9 1,418 1,706 1,822 2,017 2,352 10 to 14 1,083 1,493 1,390 1,720 1,869 15 to 19 2,389 2,432 3,214 3,611 3,932 20 to 24 2,948 3,405 5,097 4,993 6,077 25 to 29 2,216 2,526 2,276 3,165 3,498 30 to 34 1,592 2,104 1,611 2,537 2,444 35 to 39 1,402 1,735 1,917 1,817 2,485 40 to 44 1,330 1,476 1,787 1,439 2,229 45 to 49 1,431 1,479 1,714 1,993 1,858 50 to 54 1,322 1,548 1,505 1,916 1,518 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 Over 85 1,163 989 677 502 444 396 394 FT 1,586 1,379 1,127 914 618 398 406 1,431 1,360 1,284 1,064 822 582 407 1,744 1,391 1,218 1,104 985 713 545 1,994 1,742 1,461 1,110 919 728 663 DR Total 24,286 27,982 31,224 35,052 39,401 Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service The amount of households with A children is on the rise. 10 City of Fredericksburg Racial Diversity Figure 3 - Racial Demographics 2022 FT Source: U.S. Census (Population Estimates July 1, 2022) Over the 2020-2040 period, Fredericksburg is projected to become more diverse as the Hispanic and Asian populations grow quickly. The White population is expected to be constant at around 15,000, while Whites as a share of the total population will decrease from 50% to 39%. Table 3. Population Projection by Race DR Race White Black or African- American 2020 Population 14,873 7,431 Percentage 50.25% 25.11% 2030 Population 15,352 8,364 Percentage 44.52% 24.26% 2040 Population 14,996 8,827 Percentage 38.66% 22.76% A Asian 1,188 4.01% 1,883 5.46% 2,791 7.20% Other 1,173 3.96% 1,156 3.35% 1,069 2.76% Hispanic/ 4,931 16.66% 7,727 22.41% 11,108 28.64% Latino Fig. 4 - Population Projection By Race 2020 2030 2040 Demographic + Economic Profile Update 11 Economic Context Fredericksburg and the George Washington Region are located at the southern edge of the Washington- Arlington-Alexandria Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). With Washington, D.C. at its core, this MSA is largest federal employment hub in the country. The MSA has a population of 6.33 million, making it the seventh largest in the USA. In 2022 the total economic output of the MSA was $660.6 billion. The top three economic sectors by employment in the MSA are 1) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, 2) Public Administration, and 3) Health Care & Social Assistance. The close proximity of Fredericksburg to the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria MSA generates employment opportunities for Fredericksburg residents and enables some MSA workers to relocate to Fredericksburg without changing jobs. This is increasingly true following the COVID pandemic, with the rise in remote work. Housing The housing data in the tables and figure below compare Fredericksburg to the four counties in the George Washington Region (Planning District Commission 16). Fredericksburg households are on average smaller than those in the surrounding counties, reflecting the high number of students in the city as well as the FT historic tendency for families to locate in the suburbs. (As shown in the age group analysis above, however, the increase in young families in Fredericksburg is bucking that trend.) Home ownership rates in Fredericksburg are lower at 39% than those in PDC 16 (75%-82%). This is typical of other “College Cities/Towns” throughout Virginia. However, housing costs in the city — whether for rental housing or homeownership — are comparable to those in the four counties, but household incomes are lower on average. This suggests that housing affordability is a bigger challenge in the city. Reflecting the denser settlement patterns in the historic center, population per square mile in Fredericksburg is about 9 times higher than the average across the four counties. DR When compared to select communities from Planning District Commission 8, Fredricksburg’s Median Value is more similar. However, on the following page, the local Median Household Income is revealed to be more comparable to localities in less affluent areas of Virginia. Table 4. Housing Characteristics Comparison Jurisdiction Median Value Average Median Rental % Owner- Persons Per Population of Owner Mortgage Cost/Month Occupied Household Per Square A Occupied Cost/Month Mile Housing Units Fredericksburg $438,400 $2,279 $1,462 38.5% 2.30 2,677.7 PDC 16 Communities Caroline County $253,300 $1,668 $1,212 81.7% 2.61 58.6 King George $372,300 $2,074 $1,385 75.2% 2.75 148.8 County Spotsylvania $349,900 $1,968 $1,677 78.9% 2.85 348.8 County Stafford County $431,900 $2,429 $1,828 79.6% 3.06 582.9 Select PDC 8 Communities Fairfax County $666,900 $3,063 $2,159 68.6% 2.76 2,941.8 Loudoun County $657,000 $3,145 $2,195 77.4% 3.02 816.2 Prince William $472,000 $2,578 $1,907 74.1% 3.13 1,438.3 County Source: U.S. Census Quick Facts 12 City of Fredericksburg Selected communities for comparison include Salem, Charlottesville, further west and south in the State, and Manassas, and Fairfax County, part of Planning District Commission 8 in Northern Virignia. With a Median Household Income more similar to other parts of Virginia and home values on the previous page showing prices similar to Northern Virginia, there is the indication of an affordability problem for local residents looking to purchase a home in the community. Table 5. Median Household Income Figure 5 - Median Household Income Comparison Jurisdiction Median Household Income (2022) Fredericksburg $83,445 PDC 16 Communities Caroline County $83,562 King George County $103,264 Spotsylvania County Stafford County Select Comparison Communities Salem Charlottesville Manassas FT $105,068 $128,036 $68,402 $67,177 $101,934 Source: U.S. Census Quick Facts DR Fairfax County $145,164 Table 6 compares educational attainment in Fredericksburg to the economic region, state, and country. Fredericksburg’s population is highly educated. Educational attainment in the George Washington Region is comparable to that in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Table 6. Educational Attainment A Level Fredericksburg PDC 16 Virginia U.S. 8th Grade or Less 3.3% 2.6% 4.3% 5.2% Some High School 3.2% 6.8% 7.3% 8.3% High School Grad/GED 21.5% 29.7% 25.5% 28.0% Some College 27.6% 24.7% 22.8% 23.7% Associates Degree 0.0% 6.9% 6.9% 7.7% Bachelor's Degree 24.9% 18.4% 19.7% 17.3% Graduate or Professional Degree 18.6% 11.0% 13.5% 9.9% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% The City has an educated workforce, 44% of the population aged 25+ has a Bachelors’ Degree or higher. Demographic + Economic Profile Update 13 Commuting Patterns More than three-quarters of workers living in Fredericksburg commute to jobs outside the city, primarily to Northern Virginia and Washington D.C. Fredericksburg is also a strong regional employment center in its own right, with about 19,000 people commuting from outside to jobs in the city. Table 7 shows existing commuting patterns. Table 8 shows the top ten places where commuters to Fredericksburg come from. Table 7. Commuting Patterns Commuting Pattern Number of Share Commuters Employed in Fredericksburg 21,806 100% In-commuters (employed in 19,038 90.3% Fredericksburg, live outside the city) Employed and Live in Fredericksburg 2,048 9.7% Out-commuters (live in Fredericksburg, 8,020 79.7% employed outside the city) FT Source: U.S. Census On the Map DR Table 8. Where Do Fredericksburg’s Workers Come From? Area of Origin Spotsylvania County, VA Workers 5,905 Share 28.0% A Stafford County, VA Fredericksburg City, VA Prince William County, VA Caroline County, VA Fairfax County, VA King George County, VA Loudoun County, VA Orange County, VA Henrico County, VA All Other Locations 3,536 2,048 858 768 730 652 546 536 320 5,187 16.8% 9.7% 4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 1.5% 24.6% Total Primary Jobs 21,086 - Source: U.S. Census On the Map 14 City of Fredericksburg  Table 9. Employment Distribution in Fredericksburg Industry Group Employees % Health Care and Social Assistance 6,208 25.3% Accommodation and Food Services 4,022 16.4% Government Total 3,840 15.6% Retail Trade 3,458 14.1% Local Government 1,723 7.0% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,399 5.7% State Government 1,087 4.4% Federal Government 1,030 4.2% Management of Companies and Enterprises 905 3.7% Other Services (except Public Administration) 735 3.0% Administrative and Support and Waste 681 2.8% Management Construction Finance and Insurance FT Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Manufacturing 586 534 435 402 353 241 237 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% DR Education Services Information Unclassified Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting* 219 146 79 0 * 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% * A Utilities* * * Total 24,563 *Data not available. Source: U.S. Census On the Map Demographic + Economic Profile Update 15 Fredericksburg 50 Largest Employers 1. Mary Washington Hospital 26. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store 2. Fredericksburg City Public Schools 27. Labor ReadyMid-Atlantic, Inc. 3. University of Mary Washington 28. The Wood Company 4. City of Fredericksburg 29. Mercedes-Benz Of Fredericksburg 5. Wal Mart 30. Morrison Crothall Support 6. Wegmans Store #07 31. Great Hill Solutions LLC 7. Rappahannock Area Community Services Board 32. U.S. Department of Defense 8. Rehab Hospital of Fredericksburg 33. Sedona Taphouse 9. Compass Counseling Services 34. Best Buy 10. OS Restaurant Services, Inc. 35. U.S. Department of Agriculture 11. U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs 36. Kohl’s Department Stores 12. U.S. Department of Commerce 37. BJ’s Restaurants and Brewhouse 13. Lowes’ Home Centers, Inc. 38. Fredericksburg Christian School 14. Postal Service 39. ECC Enterprises Holding Company 15. WaWa 16. Obsidian Solutions Group 17. Target Corp 18. Fredericksburg Senior Car Inc 19. The Home Depot 20. U.S. Department of Homeland Defense 21. Fun Land Opco LLC 22. L 3 Communications Corp 23. Global Dimensions LLC 24. Morrison Management Specialists FT 40. Falls Church Medical Center 41. McDonald’s 42. Brocks Riverside Grill 43. Chick-Fil-A At Central Park 44. Giant Food 45. Hughes Home Inc 46. VDOT 47. T J Maxx 48. Starbucks Coffee 49. Resilience Counseling And Social DR 25. Red Lobster & The Olive Garden 50. Spring Hills Home Care Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW), 4th Quarter (October, November, December) 2023. A 16 City of Fredericksburg Unemployment Rate Table 10 shows the unemployment rate in Fredericksburg since 2013. The rate is highest in 2013 at 7.6% as it was dropping from impacts of the U.S.-wide recession that started in 2008. The rate steadily dropped from the 2013 to 2020, when it spiked during the COVID pandemic. It has since dropped to a very low 3.0%, reflecting the ample employment opportunities in the city and the region. Table 10. Unemployment Rate Comparison Year Fredericksburg PDC 16 Virginia U.S. 2013 7.6% 5.8% 5.6% 7.4% 2014 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 6.2% 2015 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 5.3% 2016 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.9% 2017 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 4.4% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 FT 3.1% 2.9% 6.1% 3.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 6.1% 3.8% 2.9% 2.5% 3.0% 2.8% 6.4% 3.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.9% 3.7% 8.1% 5.3% 3.6% 3.6% Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics Division DR Military Bases Local military bases create employment opportunities and have ripple effects in the city economy. For example, Marine Corps Base Quantico is home to over 26,927 military, civilian, student, and contractor personnel. Its impact on the local economy has been estimated at $5.8 billion. With an operating budget of A approximately #1 billion, Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren employs approximately 3,900 civilians, 900 military, and over 3,700 badged contractors. Over 44,000 military personnel are trained in joint and combined arms training at Fort Walker; the local economic impacts attributable to the garrison are estimated at $93.2 million. The mission of these facilities includes research and development, strategic combat planning, and training for the armed forces and several Federal law enforcement agencies. Sources: (1) Marines Website. Marine Corps Installations National Capital Region Marine Corps Base Quantico Fast Facts 2022. Retrieved April 2024. https://www.quantico.marines.mil/Home/About/ (2)CNIC Website. About NSF Dahlgren. Retrieved April 2024. https://ndw.cnic.navy.mil/Installations/NSA-South-Potomac/Installations/NSF- Dahlgren/About/ (3) Army Website. Economic Impacts of Fort AP Hill – Growing the Military Mission in Virginia, May 2018. Retrieved April 2024. https://home. army.mil/walker/application/files/1115/4021/7144/Fort_A.P._Hill_Economic_Impact_Assessment.pdf Demographic + Economic Profile Update 17 Summary of Findings Demographics Annual average population growth rates in Fredericksburg were 2.02% over the period 2000-2022. The population is expected to continue to grow at about 1.1% annually over the next 25 years. The projected growth rate is moderate, not high. The projected population of 39,402 in 2050 represents a 41% increase over the estimated 2022 population (28,757). The comprehensive plan will address the ways that Fredericksburg will accommodate the increase of about 10,600 people over that period. Over the 2020-2040 period, Fredericksburg is projected to become more diverse as the Hispanic and Asian populations grow quickly. The White population is expected to be constant at around 15,000, while Whites as a share of the total population will decrease from 50% to 39%. Most of the population growth in the George Washington Region is taking place in the surrounding counties, not in the City of Fredericksburg. This reflects the ongoing expansion of suburban development down the I-95 corridor in recent decades and the availability of land for low-density development in the counties. Schools FT According to the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center, between school years 2023-2024 and 2028-2029, the Fredericksburg school system will see a growth rate of -1.3%. During the same period, high schools will see a moderate increase of 0.6%, while elementary and middle schools will see a slight decline in student populations. Fredericksburg City Public Schools utilizes the same projections in their planning for capital improvements and new facilities. The latest expenditures in the FY2023-2029 Capital Improvement Plan summary include a $4 million dollar “New Elementary School Conversion,” a New Middle School with no expected date or allocated funding at this time, and the expansion of James Monroe High School in DR 2029 for $5.83 million. However, growth is always a difficult metric to track. Rapid growth in the coming years, as projected, could require further investments to maintain quality classroom sizes and facilities. Figure 6. Projected Student Total 2028-2029 Figure 7. Growth Rate 2023-2029 A Grade 2023-2024 2024-2025 Table 11. Projected School Enrollment 2025-2026 2026-2027 2027-2028 2028-2029 Growth Rate Elementary (K - 5) 1,658 1,626 1,599 1,572 1,555 1,519 -1.4% Middle (6 - 8) 776 812 812 796 766 750 -0.6% High (9-12) 1,006 1,003 1,001 998 1,026 1,042 0.6% Total 3,587 3,441 3,412 3,366 3,347 3,311 -1.3% Source: Fredericksburg City Public Schools 18 City of Fredericksburg Economics Fredericksburg and the George Washington Region are located at the southern edge of the Washington- Arlington-Alexandria Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). With Washington, D.C. at its core, this region is largest federal employment hub in the country. The MSA generates employment opportunities for Fredericksburg residents and enables some MSA workers to relocate to Fredericksburg without changing jobs. This is increasingly true following the Covid pandemic, with the rise in remote work. Home ownership rates in Fredericksburg are lower at 39% than those in PDC 16 (75%-82%). Housing costs in the city — whether for rental housing or homeownership — are comparable to those in the four counties, but household incomes are lower on average. This suggests that housing affordability is a bigger challenge in the city. More than three-quarters of workers living in Fredericksburg commute to jobs outside the city, primarily in Northern Virginia and Washington D.C. Fredericksburg is also a strong regional employment center in its FT own right, with about 19,000 people commuting from outside to jobs in the city. Additionally, Local military bases create employment opportunities and generate economic ripple effects in Fredericksburg’s economy. DR A Demographic + Economic Profile Update 19 Consolidated Virginia Erosion and Stormwater Management Program (VESMP) June 12, 2024 Planning Commission Public Hearing  Objective • Hold the public hearing for the amendments to Chapter §72 and recommend approval of the attached ordinance to City Council • This update is in accordance with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) model ordinance published on December 27, 2023 and Virginia Municipal Stormwater Association (VAMSA) feedback released on January 29, 2024 • Final approval of these changes will ensure that the City is in compliance with a State mandated July 1, 2024 deadline 2  Purpose • DEQ designates FXBG to regulate and enforce environmental requirements • §38.4, Virginia Stormwater Management Program • Regulates post construction stormwater quantity and quality • §72, Unified Development Ordinance • Provides regulations for: • Construction, operation, and management of developments in the City • Chesapeake Bay Preservation and stormwater infrastructure • §78.5, Erosion and Sediment Control • Dictates the minimum standards for development 3  Goals for this Update • Consolidate Chapters §38.4 and §78.5 into an updated and unified Chapter §38.4 entitled “Virginia Erosion and Stormwater Management Program” (VESMP) • Update four sections of the UDO • §72-20.6, Erosion and Sediment Control Program and Virginia Stormwater Management Program Administrator • Update references to current State Code • §72-34.5, Chesapeake Bay Preservation Overlay District • Update references to the new Chapter 38.4 and current edition of State and DEQ material • §72-54.3, Stormwater • Align storm frequency design criteria and other references • §72-84 Definitions • Update definitions to reflect the State Code 4  Work Completed • 2016 – Virginia General Assembly passed legislation requiring DEQ to consolidate the erosion and sediment control/stormwater programs • December 27, 2023 - DEQ released the model ordinance • January 29, 2024 - Virginia Municipal Stormwater Association (VAMSA) provided comments and feedback to help localities adopt these updates • April 23, 2024 – City Council work session • May 6, 2024 – Clean and Green Commission discussion 5  Work Completed Continued • May 8, 2024 – Planning Commission work session • May 14 – City Council regular session • Action on Ordinance amending Chapters 38 and 78 amendments, 1st read • Unanimously approved on May 14, 2024 • Action on resolution initiating Chapter 72 (UDO) amendments • Unanimously approved on May 14, 2024 6  Next Steps • June 12 – Planning Commission regular session • Public hearing and recommendation on Chapter 72 (UDO) amendments • June 25 – City Council regular session • Action on ordinance consolidating Chapters 38 and 78 amendments, 2nd read • Public hearing and action on 1st and 2nd read for Chapter 72 (UDO) amendments • July 1, 2024 – State Mandated Deadline for Adoption 7 Recommendation: • Hold the public hearing for the amendments to Chapter §72 and recommend approval of the attached ordinance to City Council Questions? 8