City Council

Minutes of Work Session of Council of Ogden City, Utah, April 21, 2016 Page Minutes of the Work Session of the Ogden City Council held on Thursday, April 21, 2016 at 3:32 p.m., in the Council Work Room located on the third floor of the Municipal Building, 2549 Washington Boulevard, Ogden City, Weber County, Utah. Present: Chair Marcia L. White Vice Chair Bart E. Blair (arrived at 3:46 p.m.) Council members Neil K. Garner Richard A. Hyer Luis Lopez Ben Nadolski Doug Stephens (arrived at 3:33 p.m.) Council Executive Director Bill Cook Council Deputy Director Janene Eller-Smith Council Policy Analyst Glenn Symes Communications Manager Amy Sue Mabey Also present: Public Services Director Jay Lowder Deputy City Recorder Abbie Zampedri The purpose of the Work Session is to hold a Strategic Planning Workshop and discuss Council business. Strategic Planning Workshop Council Executive Director Cook stated the focus of today’s workshop will be demographics and trends. Council staff has been studying a document entitled “The Next Big Things in Local Government” in order to share information with the Council and facilitate open dialogue regarding demographics. He stated there will also be continued discussion regarding Council priorities for the next Fiscal Year and discussion regarding draft information provided by the City’s branding consultant, Roger Brooks. Ogden’s Demographics: Council Policy Analyst Symes used the aid of a PowerPoint presentation to provide the Council with information regarding Ogden’s demographics. Demographics are statistical data relating to the population and particular groups within it. He discussed Ogden’s place in the world; world population is 7.3 billion, United States population is 323 million, State of Utah population is 2,942,902 million, Weber County population is 240,475, and Ogden City population is 84,316. He also compared Ogden’s population to other cities in Utah ranging from Salt Lake City to South Jordan, after which he provided a breakdown of the City’s total population by race: 63.5 percent of the City’s residents are White or non-Hispanic, 30.1 percent are Hispanic or Latino, 2.2 percent are Black or African American, 1.4 percent are American Indian/AK Native, 1.2 percent are Asian, and 0.3 percent are Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. He then reviewed migration demographic information with a focus on the percentage of Ogden residents born in Utah or the United States compared to those that are foreign born. He also reviewed socioeconomic demographic information for Ogden compared to Weber County and the entire State of Utah. He indicated 54.9 percent of Ogden residents are owner occupants, the median home value is $131,200, the median household income is $40,937, there are 2.76 persons per household, the per capita income is $19,475, 81.6 percent of the population have high school or higher education, and 18.6 percent have a bachelor’s degree or higher. He reviewed images of the State of Utah and Ogden population pyramid, which includes population data according to age and gender. The image illustrates the fluctuation in population during certain periods over the 20th century, such as the Great Depression, the Baby Boomer era, and the time during which “Generation X” was raised. He referenced Ogden City and Weber County population projections, indicating that by the year 2060 the City’s population could increase to 106,934 compared to 449,053 in Weber County. This prediction was provided by the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget. Other projections have been provided by the Wasatch Front Regional Council (WFRC); they have projected that by the year 2040 the population for the entire State of Utah will be 5,171,391. He then discussed data provided by the Utah Foundation – a non-partisan research firm – known as A Snapshot of 2050. The report was published in April of 2014 and it analyzes Utah’s population over the next 35 years. The study considered forecasts for job growth, net migration, economic strength, cost of living, and household and family size. The report indicates that the State’s population in the future will likely be older, more diverse, and more urban. Most growth will be a result of natural increase versus net in-migration and Utah will remain one of the fastest growing states. The study also indicates that Utah’s dependency ratios are among the highest in the United States with large families and a growing aging population. In 2012, the dependency ratio was 68.3; there were 68.3 non-working age Utahns for every 100 working age Utahns. The ratio of youth to retirement age is shifting. He focused on population natural increase versus net migration, reiterating most of the State’s population growth is natural increase; net migration is largely due to job growth. By the year 2050 there will be nearly two babies born for every new move-in resident. A continued net migration diversifies the population. He then reviewed the following statistics regarding urbanization: • Utah is already one of the most “urban” states (8th) • 90.6% live in urban areas  • 80% of Utah is Federal, State, or Tribal lands • Limited private land plus physical barriers concentrates population to urban areas Mr. Symes stated with urbanization comes the need to consider land use and housing. State-wide planning efforts in the 1990s reduced land consumption and an analysis shows that current land use patterns cannot meet future housing needs. The housing demand is shifting and home ownership rates are declining. Council member Hyer inquired as to the expectations for the changes in Ogden to accommodate future population growth given that the City is already largely built-out. He asked if building patterns will shift to accommodate more people or if increased population will be shifted to urban sprawl areas in communities surrounding Ogden. Mr. Symes stated the expectation is for urban sprawl areas to continue because there is a hesitance to increase density in most cities throughout the State. He then discussed the Envision Utah document titled Wasatch Choices for 2040. The document provides the greater Wasatch vision for 2040. The greater Wasatch is one region stretching from Weber County south to Utah County and from Tooele County east to the Wasatch Back. The region competes economically with other regions and comprises one job and housing market. The document focuses on shaping tomorrow’s neighborhoods, communities, and economic centers within the region in order to dramatically affect the quality of life, including how much time and money residents spend commuting and the choices available to them to live, work, shop, and play. He discussed United States (US) population projections for 2060 provided by the US Census Bureau and published in 2014. The findings include:  US fertility rates will continue to decline  Population will continue aging  Population will become more diverse  US will be majority-minority in 2044  Youth population declining  Retirement aged population increasing  In 2033, old-age dependency will equal youth dependency  By 2060, dependency ratios are projected to be at 76  Utah dependency ratio projected to be at 80 in 2060  Native born population increase of 22%  Foreign born population increase of 85%  Children born in US to foreign born parents count as native population  Overall population increase of 98 million to 417 million  White, non-Hispanic population decreases by 8.2% • Will represent 44% of total • Still largest single group  Most significant increases: • Two or more races +225.5% • Asian +128.1% (9.3% of total) • Hispanic or Latino +114.8% (28.6% of total) He then summarized conclusions and takeaways derived from a review of the various demographic studies cited: • Our population is increasing  By 2020 – Ogden at ~90,000, Weber Co. at ~260,000  By 2030 – Ogden at ~100,000, Weber Co. at ~300,000  By 2060 – Ogden at ~107,000, Weber Co. at ~450,000 • Our population is aging  By 2020 – 17.6 retirement age per 100 working age in Utah  By 2030 – 24.2 retirement age per 100 working age in Utah  By 2060 – 33.7 retirement age per 100 working age in Utah • Our population is diversifying  Majority-minority by 2044 in US  In 2014, <18 years old white, non-Hispanics accounted for 52% of population  May already be majority-minority for youth • Ogden has fallen behind  Lower home values  Lower homeownership rates  Higher substandard housing inventory  Lower educational attainment Mr. Symes discussed some of the things Ogden is doing to address population related issues. Relative to population growth the City has worked to develop a Bike Master Plan, Transit System Plan, Transportation Master Plan, Water Conservation Place, water source security policies, and changing land uses and densifying. Relative to an aging population the City has worked to increase services at facilities and improve the availability of transit. Council member Hyer stated he feels protection of the City’s water sources is important. This led to a brief discussion about the City’s ownership of water shares and projects that have been completed to produce more water and protect water. Mr. Cook suggested that detailed discussion about water source protection policies take place when staff from the department responsible for that action is present during future budget discussions. Council member Stephens stated that along with consideration of the plans intended to address traffic congestion associated with population increase, he would like to consider a Parks Master Plan. As population grows it will be necessary to provide recreation outlets and open space opportunities. Mr. Symes then discussed community outreach efforts undertaken by the City, such as the diversity initiative and the College Town initiative. He added the City’s Annual Action Plans address substandard housing in Ogden by providing Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds for home purchase, assistance for rehabilitation or repair, business counseling, business loan programs, and down payment assistance. He also discussed the City’s Quality Neighborhoods Initiative, the goals of which include improving housing stock, making neighborhoods communities of choice, increase property values, promoting education, and community investment. The Council also works closely with the City’s Community and Economic Development staff to focus on increasing job availability and well-paying jobs. The Council engaged in a brief discussion regarding diversity of the City’s population based upon information included in Mr. Symes’ presentation regarding the percentage of the City’s residents that are considered Hispanic/Latino. Council member Nadolski stated it is important to understand the differences between the percentages of Hispanic and Latino citizens because they are two different nationalities. He is interested in understanding the demographics of that portion of the City’s population in order to understand the values that they bring to the City. Mr. Nadolski discussed dependency ratios and the effect it will have on discretionary spending in the future; this will be a looming threat for the community. Mr. Symes responded that appears to be accurate based on the research he conducted. This led to a discussion regarding discretionary spending and the impact a decrease in the activity will have on the City in the future. Council member Nadolski stated that when considering the best ways for the Council and Administration to engage and communicate with the population, it is important to know as much as possible about them to develop the most effective form of communication. Mr. Cook agreed and noted the he has participated in interviews with representatives of 16 minority groups to get their feedback regarding how best the City can communicate with them. The feedback has been compiled and will be shared within Ogden City and with other government entities that can benefit from the information. Ms. Eller-Smith then used the aid of a PowerPoint presentation to provide the Council with information taken from the document titled “The Next Big Things in Local Government”. The article was written by the Alliance for Innovation, who reached out to futurists for input. One futurist that provided input is Cecily Sommers, who has said “if you’re not busy creating your future, then all you are is just busy.” She stated Ms. Sommers developed the Four Forces Model. The four forces are resources, technology, demographics, and governance. When any of the four forces are undergoing dramatic changes or disruption, that is likely to mark a significant shift in how citizens engage and respond to local government. She read the following quote taken from the section of the Four Forces model regarding organization and prioritization of trends: “For innovative city and county leaders, it’s sobering to think that you can have the best-run local government (the fourth force), but if there is a serious resource shortage (the first force), and abrupt technology change (the second force), or a significant in-migration or out-migration of people (the third force), it won’t matter; change will be forced upon you. Understanding the four forces and their order of importance is fundamental to building a future-ready community.” This led to a discussion about resources; resources are necessities of life that every organism needs to function, such as food, water, air, and shelter. Resources are tied to survival and resource trends identified by the Alliance for Innovation and include climate, ocean, space, energy, minerals, water, land, food, and animals. Ms. Eller- Smith focused on three of the trends, first discussing climate change. This was identified as the most important resource issue facing local government. Most areas of the world have accepted climate change as a foregone conclusion and the United States is the only area that questions whether climate change is a real thing. Canadian municipalities even weave climate-change plans into departmental plans, long range plans, and sustainable development plans. Cities that have made measurable emission reductions have created global results. This includes things like landfill gas capture, increased public transit use, reduced use of private cars and government fleet vehicles, residential energy use, waste reduction, reduction of upstream emissions through purchasing policies, etc. Ms. Eller-Smith stated Ogden City has made some strides in reducing emissions by focusing on energy efficient construction of City facilities, low emission City fleet vehicles, and paperless Council packets. She then discussed another resource issue: food security. As the planet gets hotter, droughts will drag on longer and with greater intensity. This will lead to decreases in food production, and increases in food prices. Links have been made between climate change, food insecurity and political instability in Syria, North Korea, Iran and Somalia. If food like corn is diverted to energy production, food prices may become more unstable. She reported Envision Utah has identified the following measures they recommend for increasing positive food production efforts: • Increase profitability of agriculture • Keep Utah’s irrigation water and best farmland in agriculture • Put new lands into agricultural production where feasible • Shift agriculture from animal-consumed crops (hay) to human-consumed crops (fruits, vegetables) where feasible • Increase production of and access to local foods in urban areas • Promote and increase the number of local food markets • Promote backyard agriculture and community gardens • Promote cooperative neighborhood orchards and gardens Ms. Eller-Smith reported on the water shortage resource issue and noted that by 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population will be living in water-stressed conditions. Utah and other mountain west regions are already considered water stressed. Envision Utah recommends the following steps be taken to address water shortage: • Significantly reduce per–capita water use in Utah communities • Ensure sufficient water for agriculture to increase our food self-sufficiency • Adequately maintain/replace existing water infrastructure; develop new water supplies as needed • Prepare for the potential impacts of climate change • Foster a thriving economy • Ensure water quality and quantity to adequately sustain/maintain the environment by improving watershed management and preserving natural systems • Improve the availability and quality of information about Utah’s water She focused on ways to significantly reduce per-capital water use as follows: • Reduce outdoor watering • Encourage and incentivize water-wise landscaping and irrigation practices  Tiered rate structures  Incentive and financial assistance for water-wise practices  Design open spaces and government-owned landscaping to be water-wise. • Provide resources and education on water conservation • Maintain and improve water infrastructure to minimize system losses • Understand the basin-wide effects of local conservation activities Ms. Eller-Smith touched on the necessity for shelter. Envision Utah has addressed housing and cost of living issues and recommends that communities provide a variety of neighborhoods, build mixed-use centers throughout urban and suburban areas, design a balanced transportation system, and provide easily accessible recreation areas. Mr. Cook referenced water conservation and stated that he believes price elasticity has an impact on water consumption. There is a certain price point at which users will change their behavior and he personally believes the fact that Weber Basin Water Conservancy District is proceeding with metering of secondary water will change behavior. Council Communications Manager Mabey then used the aid of a PowerPoint presentation to discuss technology trends. She discussed data regarding technological developments taken from 2015 Pew Research. Computers now fit in the palm of your hand; 68 percent of American adults own a smartphone, up from 35 percent in 2011. Seventy-three percent of adults are online on a daily basis, with 42 percent online several times per day. The internet has become the central source of information. She stated that technology in the next twenty years will have a transformative effect on how citizens interact with their governments, what they expect from their governments, and what they can provide to their governments. Offerings of technology include: • Real-time, two-way engagement between residents and government • Improved community relations • Government may not control what technologies are developed but can choose to capitalize on these Relative to demographics, millennials and iGeneration (people born between 2002 and 2022) will be regular internet users with the ability to navigate proficiently and effectively. The opportunity to think about how tech can empower citizens and make them feel ownership for their government is really important. One technology trend has been referred to as a sharing economy based on supply and demand. Examples of sharing platforms include applications like Uber, AirBnB, and crowdfunding. Technology has also changed education through models of teaching and learning such as STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics). Ms. Mabey discussed four technology participation platforms as follows: • Citizens offer data about themselves and allow others to analyze and provide input • Government provides data for the public to analyze/assess and then share insights with the community • Government asking for citizen ideas • Government providing data and asking citizens for solutions An additional technology trend is known as unmanning, or the age of robots, artificial intelligence, and smart cities. This trend will eliminate jobs, but will create improved technology. Examples of unmanning include:  Northern cities using anti-icing agents for roads  Road sensors measuring traffic and adjusting toll prices based on congestion  Use of autonomous vehicles An additional technology trend is sustainability, such as energy storage and off-gridding, use of electric vehicles, water recycling, and desalinization of water. There are also health care trends in technology, which include things like: • Eliminating routine medical visits • Advanced understanding of diseases and effective treatments • Patient health records shared between hospitals and emergency response teams (EMTs will know health history) Other technology trends include decentralized manufacturing and three-dimensional printing, digital currency, carless communities, new global financial hardships, nano technologies, and biomimicry. Mr. Symes then refocused on demographics. He discussed demographic trends discussed in “The Next Big Thing in Government” article, beginning with a trend relative to structural (youth) unemployment. Larry Summers writes in the 2015 Global Economic Outlook: “If we look at the data on workers aged 25-54 – the age group we think of as the backbone of the workforce – the percentage of those who are not working has risen by a factor of more than three times over the course of my lifetime. If current trends continue it could well be that a generation from now a quarter of the middle-aged demographic will be out of work at any given moment.” An additional demographic trend relates to elder expenses and for this trend the following is true:   Puts significant pressure on local, state and federal government budgets  Entitlement spending could consume entire fed budget by 2030  Social Security began when 14 workers supported 1 retiree  Global Potential Support Ration rate is currently 9:1 but will go to 4:1 by 2050 Finally, Mr. Symes discussed a demographic trend relating to urbanization and growth in urbanization. Urbanization can lead to economic growth and/or greater unrest and mid-sized cities should be collaborating with one another to address the issue. The urban/rural split can cause friction because rural people do not believe urbanites represent their values. Mr. Cook noted the article includes 46 trends and associated recommendations and Council staff has chosen to highlight just a few. He suggested that the Council read the entire article on their own for additional information and recommendations. He then discussed governance trends; one governance trend referenced in the article is referred to as City-to-City collaboration. In the absence of leadership at the national or state levels, local governments are taking matters into their own hands. The article included a quote from Jim Keene, City Manager of Palo Alto, California, who said “I talk more with the mayor’s office in Barcelona than I do with my own state and national representatives.” Mr. Cook discussed the governance trend relating to citizen engagement. Over the next twenty years, next-generation citizens will make-up the majority of Ogden’s citizens; these people do not “show-up” to place-based events in traditional ways. For that reason, it is important to change the manner in which the City communicates with and engages citizens. The manner in which events are planned, executed, incorporated and measured will be key. He discussed the governance trend relating to fiscal uncertainty. As nations and states transfer more responsibility to local governments, there will be the challenge of too little money chasing too many needs. Mr. Cook reviewed a graphic illustrating the fact that total tax revenues for state and local governments are not projected to return to the 2007 historical high until the year 2058. He reported nine cities, towns, or counties have declared Chapter Nine bankruptcy since the year 2010 and this is directly related to fiscal uncertainty. He read the following quote: “… closing the fiscal gap would require action to be taken today and maintained for each year equivalent to an 18 percent reduction in the state and local government sector’s current expenditures. Closing the fiscal gap through revenue increases would require action of similar magnitude through increases in state and local revenues. More likely, closing the fiscal gap would involve some combination of both expenditure reductions and revenue increases.” Mr. Cook stated it is important that the City Council and City Administration work together to prepare for the future and building reserve funding for the City. He then concluded that the article has identified suggested solutions for various scenarios including the official future, nomentum, the “we’re not gonna take it” mentality, and democracy 3.0. Basic solutions include: • Determine your community’s resource threats and opportunities • After resources, what are your next areas of greatest vulnerability? • Invest in leadership development – for elected officials and staff • Collective procurement • Strengthen community networks • Be a place for all people Intermediate solutions include: • Interdisciplinary, innovative local government • Broaden your definition of sustainability • Develop contingency plans for both rapid growth and rapid decline • Balance the community’s focus on growth with quality of life Transformative solutions include: • The fifty-year plan • Invest in strategic foresight • Invest in open government and smart citizens • Reinvent local government The meeting recessed at 5:25 p.m. and reconvened at 5:49 p.m. Council Priorities: Mr. Cook noted there has been extensive dialogue between the Council and Council staff over the past several months regarding Council priorities. Council staff has worked to compile all priorities into one document for consideration throughout the FY2017 budget process and beyond. Priorities that have resonated among several Council members include public safety and transportation. Chair White added that she would like for the Council to move in the direction of developing actionable items and priorities with measurable outcomes. If a Council member is passionate about a given priority included in the document, they should be responsible for identifying actionable items and measurable outcomes. Council member Hyer stated that can be somewhat difficult when many City projects are driven by City Administration. Mr. Cook stated that may be the case, but individual or multiple Council members can spearhead their priorities and associated actionable items. Chair White agreed. Council member Nadolski stated he likes that concept. Chair White stated it will take some time to for the Council to change their mentality regarding priorities and focus on identifying actionable items; it may be too difficult to do in the current budget process, but it is something the Council can incorporate into future budget processes. Mr. Cook then facilitated a discussion regarding the formatting and message of the priorities document, paying close attention to opportunities to identify actionable items and measurable outcomes for various priorities. He indicated it will be important to involve City Administration in dialogue regarding these issues in order to ensure that the Council is not setting actionable items and measurable outcomes that are unattainable due to budget constraints, manpower limitations, or various other reasons. He suggested that the Council set aside time in a future meeting to focus on brainstorming actionable items and measurable outcomes for each Council priority listed in the document. The Council engaged in a discussion regarding amending the document to narrow its intent and focus. Chair White indicated that some priorities or projects are included in several locations throughout the document and she would like to eliminate those duplications to avoid confusion and provide a clearer message to the public. She suggested that the Council meet in a future meeting dedicated to that purpose along with identifying actionable items and measurable outcomes. Council member Blair suggested that each Council member take time individually to rank the priorities listed in the document and identify potential actionable items and measurable outcomes prior to the next meeting in order to have a more meaningful discussion. Mr. Cook stated that Council staff can meet with each Council member individually to aid with that step in the process in order to compile one document including all Council member priorities. He stated that Council staff will facilitate the scheduling of those meetings and a final meeting with all Council members to review the document. Branding Initiative: Mr. Cook stated that Ms. Mabey has taken information from several documents provided by the Roger Brooks team as well as emails sent between Council members and combined all of it into one document. He asked her to review it for the Council’s benefit. Ms. Mabey reported Roger Brooks provided the City with a preliminary “Ogden Branding Action Plan”; she used the recommendations included in that document and highlighted those that Mr. Brooks found to be most important at this time. These high priority recommendations include: development of a brand implementation strategy, which includes identifying funding to implement the branding strategy; formation of a brand leadership team; connectivity of certain nodes in downtown Ogden and development of a shopping, dining, pedestrian corridor; addressing parking and beautification of downtown Ogden; creating a redevelopment and business plan for Union Station; updating zoning ordinances for 25 th Street; and use of a wayfinding system for the City. Mr. Cook noted City Administration has indicated that they will be requesting use of $100,000 of fund balance money for redevelopment of the old Fred Meyer property. Administration will add another $100,000 to that amount to use as starter funds for the branding project. The Brand Leadership Team would have input and involvement in programming the $100,000 for projects identified in Mr. Brooks’ Action Plan. He added that Mr. Brooks will be making a final presentation to the Council at their August 9, 2016 work session meeting. Council member Lopez stated he is concerned about the fact that the Council has not given detailed information about the Administration’s request for $100,000 for the Fred Meyer property project. He stated he would like for the Council to be given much more information before these types of projects are discussed. Mr. Cook stated that Council staff just recently received the request and he was only sharing it with the Council. He stated much information regarding these types of projects is sensitive and the Council and Administration need to work to build a relationship of trust. Mr. Cook concluded the meeting by refocusing the discussion on the branding initiative; he briefly reviewed the schedule of completion of the project and the conclusion of the relationship between the City and Roger Brooks International. The meeting adjourned at 7:04 p.m. ________________________________________ ABBIE ZAMPEDRI DEPUTY CITY RECORDER ________________________________________ MARCIA L. WHITE, CHAIR APPROVED: July 26, 2016